--- title: "This Week in Markets: Friday 11 September 2026" description: Brent jumped 7.32% to US$109.10 and the hedges fell with it, gold down 1.17%, silver down 5.7% and copper off its record, as the US 10-year hit 4.97% and Australian 10-year yields reached their highest since 2011, dragging the ASX 200 to 8,731 in afternoon trade for a fourth consecutive fall. image: https://framerusercontent.com/images/Nd3PiOuxmjRfvTFp656kxdVcY.png --- [Skip to content](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-11-september-2026#main-content) Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd Get started Get started ![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Friday 11 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/Nd3PiOuxmjRfvTFp656kxdVcY.png) # This Week in Markets: Friday 11 September 2026 ![Joel Threadgold](https://d2ol7oe51mr4n9.cloudfront.net/user_3GpfS9yL2tylY89eFDCmA4LBqSJ/91d9b760-24fa-4bf6-8a43-ee30f1a97152.jpg) Joel Threadgold September 11, 2026 Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Tuesday 08, Wednesday 09 and Thursday 10 September closes, Thursday night's US session, through to Friday 11 September 2026 (2pm) US MARKETS Sliding A fourth straight loss. The S&P 500 fell 0.58% to 7,591.70, the Nasdaq 0.65% and the Dow 317 points, as Brent jumped 7.32% and the US 10-year yield climbed to 4.97%. ASX Skidding Down 88.2 points or 1.00% to 8,731.2 at 2pm, a fourth consecutive fall, with materials off 3.95% at midday and Australian 10-year yields at their highest since 2011. COMMODITIES Split Brent up 7.32% to US$109.10 and WTI through US$100 for the first time since May, while gold fell 1.17% to US$4,364.50, silver 5.7% and copper reversed off a fresh London record. Dear Investor, **Brent crude rose 7.32% overnight to US$109.10, and gold fell.** That is the sentence worth sitting with. The classic inflation hedge went down 1.17% to **US$4,364.50** on the same night crude had its sharpest session of the week. **Silver** dropped 5.7% to **US$64.10**. **Copper** touched a fresh London record above **US$14,875 a tonne** and then reversed 3.8% to **US$14,312**. If you have been holding hard assets specifically as protection against an inflation shock, this was the week the protection stopped working. The reason is in the bond market, not the commodity market. The US 10-year yield rose 12.6bp to **4.97%**, the 2-year 14.1bp to **4.58%** and the 30-year to **5.37%**, and traders now price above **70%** odds of a Fed hike on 16 September. Higher real yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays you nothing, and the stronger US dollar that comes with them reprices everything quoted in it. Australia gets the same treatment with an extra kick. Our 10-year yield is up 13.3bp to **5.38%** in afternoon trade, the highest since 2011, the 30-year is at **5.83%**, the 2-year is up 50bp since the late-August inflation print, and the **Australian dollar** is at **71.57 US cents** after falling 0.85% overnight. A commodity currency falling in a week the oil price ran 7% tells you which force is in charge. In a sentence Brent jumped 7.32% to US$109.10 and the hedges fell with it, gold down 1.17%, silver down 5.7% and copper off its record, as the US 10-year hit 4.97% and Australian 10-year yields reached their highest since 2011, dragging the **ASX 200** to 8,731 in afternoon trade for a fourth consecutive fall. 01 US Markets & Macro Thursday night was the fourth losing session in a row on Wall Street and the composition was worse than the headline. The **S&P 500** fell 0.58% to **7,591.70**, the **Nasdaq** 0.65% and the **Dow** 317 points to **52,064.10**. The **Russell 2000** dropped 1.0% and the **VIX** rose 8.4% to **17.8**. August **PPI** landed in line with expectations but showed energy costs feeding through, which is the part the bond market read. The **SOX** semiconductor index fell 2.7% as memory names were hit by a new DeepSeek model designed to cut high-bandwidth memory and storage requirements. **Nvidia** fell 2.3% on reports the Justice Department is examining its licensing arrangement with Groq. The more instructive story is the auction. Treasury sold **US$22bn** of 30-year paper at **5.308%**, which cleared 2.7bp below where it was trading seconds before the deadline, with a record low **2%** going to primary dealers. Everyone described that as well received. It is worth understanding what it actually means. Dealers are the buyers of last resort, so almost nothing going to them means real money took the entire line, and real money took it because the price had already fallen. A house passed in at $2m last month sells briskly at $1.6m. The genuine failure was the buyback beside it: Treasury offered to take up to **US$6bn**, received **US$10.5bn** of offers and bought only **US$5.19bn**. Each auction that clears at a higher yield makes it harder for yields to come back down, and Wednesday night's Dow was down 405 points on the same problem, Tuesday night's down 628. Two results after the bell, two halves of the same argument. **Oracle** fell 5.4% in the session and rose about 4.3% after hours: cloud infrastructure revenue up **121%** to **US$7.4bn** against a US$7.2bn consensus, remaining performance obligations at **US$664bn**, and 850 megawatts of data centre capacity added. The price of that is **US$28.5bn** of capex in a single quarter against US$6.9bn for the whole of FY24, with free cash flow negative and buybacks stopped. **Adobe** fell 2.4% and another 1.7% after hours: it beat on revenue and earnings, AI-linked recurring revenue grew more than **150%**, and November-quarter guidance of **US$6.8bn to US$6.85bn** missed narrowly at the midpoint on a stock already down **29%** this year. The market is paying for the AI build and refusing to pay for AI inside existing software. The **ECB** meanwhile delivered a hawkish hike from 2.4% to **2.65%**, its second since the war began, and signalled another as soon as October. Tonight's August **CPI** is the last inflation read before the Fed, with headline expected to hold at **3.4%** and core to ease from 2.5% to **2.4%**. 02 Australian Market Performance **Tuesday** closed at **8,921**, down 90 points or 1.00%, with only three of eleven sectors higher. Consumer discretionary was worst at -1.88%, **Wesfarmers** (WES -2.7%) and **JB Hi-Fi** (JBH -2.2%) leading it down, and information technology fell 1.76% with **WiseTech** (WTC -2.8%) and **Xero** (XRO -2.6%). RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter flagged inflation risks that could push rates higher, and the banks took it: **ANZ** off 2.6%, **CBA** 1.8%. **Wednesday** was a rare flat day at **8,912**, down 9 points or 0.11%, and the internals finally favoured the miners: energy up 1.73% with **Woodside** (WDS +2.6%), materials up 1.51% with **BHP** (+3.2%) and **Rio Tinto** (RIO +1.9%). Healthcare was worst at -1.50%. **Xero** (XRO -3.5%) kept falling, now 63% below its June 2025 high. **Thursday** gave all of it back and then some. The index closed at **8,819.4**, down 92 points or 1.03%, having been down 1.85% at worst, and all eleven sectors finished lower. Information technology (-1.74%) and materials (-1.63%) led the damage, **BHP** off 1.8%, **Rio** 2.7% and **Fortescue** (FMG -2.4%). **NextDC** (NXT -3.8%) priced **$1.1bn** of convertible notes due 2031. **St Barbara** (SBM +16.4%) was the day's outlier on selling the last of its New Simberi stake. Today the selling has found the miners properly. At 2pm the **ASX 200** is trading at **8,731.2**, down 88.2 points or 1.00%, with a session low of **8,699.80**. This is an intraday reading with two hours still to run, not a close. At midday materials were down **3.95%**, with **BHP** off 4.4% and **Rio** 3.6%, the gold sector down 3.93% with **Evolution** (EVN -4.7%) and **Northern Star** (NST -3.9%), and the copper names worse again, **Capstone** (CSC -8.5%) and **Sandfire** (SFR -6.4%). **Pilbara Minerals** (PLS -5.6%) and **Lynas** (LYC -3.8%) followed. Financials were the only real bid, up 0.66%, insurers leading after Tokio Marine flagged interest in Australian opportunities: **IAG** (+3.2%), **QBE** (+2.7%) and **Suncorp** (SUN +2.3%), with **NAB** (+1.8%) and **ANZ** (+1.0%) behind them. **GQG Partners** (GQG -5.8%) reported funds under management down to **$149.2bn** from $156.4bn in a month, $4.3bn of that net outflows. Take the week as a whole and the index has fallen from Friday 4 September's close of **9,005.9** to **8,731.2**, which is 274.7 points, or **3.05%**. 03 Commodities & Currency Oil did the work and then some. **Brent** rose 7.32% to **US$109.10** and **WTI** 7.51% to **US$103.90**, its highest close since May, taking Brent up **23%** in September alone. Three things moved at once. Houthi forces seized the Yemeni port of Mocha and reached the Hanish islands in the Red Sea, reportedly with direct Iranian guidance, which adds the Bab al-Mandab to the Strait of Hormuz as a second chokepoint. Saudi crude production fell to its lowest since **1990**. And OPEC cut its 2026 demand forecast while China came back into the market as a buyer. Downstream, US average diesel crossed **US$6 a gallon** for the first time and US petrol is at **US$4.26**, up 34% on the year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at **286.6m barrels**, about 40% of capacity and the lowest since 1983, and refilling it competes directly with commercial demand. There is no quick mechanical fix here. The metals went the other way and the copper move was the sharpest. LME copper set a record above **US$14,875 a tonne** before reversing 3.8% to **US$14,312**, and Comex copper fell close to 4% to **US$6.53 a pound**, after reports the White House plan for tariffs on refined copper had stalled on cost-of-living concerns. That tariff expectation was most of the scarcity trade, so the unwind was immediate: **Freeport-McMoRan** fell 6.6%, **Southern Copper** 7.2% and **Teck** 6.3%, and the copper miners ETF dropped 7% against a 0.6% fall in the S&P 500. Chinese copper imports also hit a six-year low for August. **Gold** fell 1.17% to **US$4,364.50** and **silver** 5.7% to **US$64.10**. **Iron ore** slipped 0.7% to **US$99 a tonne**, and has now spent four weeks camped either side of US$100. The currency is the piece most Australian portfolios will feel without noticing. The **Australian dollar** fell 0.85% overnight and sits at **71.57 US cents**, down from 72.33c on Wednesday. It fell in a week when the oil price rose 7% and copper set a record, which is not how a commodity currency is meant to behave. The explanation is that the US dollar is being bid twice over, once as the higher-yielding currency and once as the safe haven in a widening Middle East conflict. For unhedged offshore holdings that is a tailwind. For the resources stocks it is the opposite, because a rising US dollar pushes commodity prices down and makes Australian equities more expensive for overseas buyers at the same time. **Bitcoin** fell 1% to **US$77,445**. 04 Stock Highlights & Sector Themes Strip out the index and the Australian market this week split on a single question: does your earnings stream get bigger or smaller when the risk-free rate goes up? The miners answered first and loudest. **BHP** fell 5.3% in US trade overnight and was down 4.4% locally at midday. **Rio** off 3.6%, **Capstone** 8.5%, **Sandfire** 6.4%, **Evolution** 4.7%, **Northern Star** 3.9%, **Pilbara** 5.6%. Nothing in the underlying commodity story changed this week. Copper is still tight, gold is still above US$4,300, iron ore is still near US$100. What changed is the discount rate and the currency the commodity is priced in, and that was enough to take 4% out of the sector in a morning. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, but the correlation this week is not subtle. On the other side sat the businesses that are paid more when rates rise. Insurers led the market today, **IAG** up 3.2%, **QBE** 2.7% and **Suncorp** 2.3%, because a higher yield on the investment float is a direct earnings upgrade. The banks held up, **NAB** up 1.8%, and **Challenger** (CGF +3.0%) rose on a broker upgrade for the same structural reason. Contrast that with the asset gatherers and the software names on the other side of the ledger: **GQG** down 5.8% with funds under management off $7.2bn in a single month, **Xero** down 4.0% on Thursday and 63% below its June 2025 high. The useful read is that this is not growth against value, and it is not quality against junk. It is a straight sort on who benefits from a higher risk-free rate and who is valued off it, and this week it ran right through the middle of the two sectors that dominate the ASX 200. 05 Geopolitics & Trade The conflict is now in its seventh month and it has acquired a second chokepoint. Houthi forces have seized Mocha, pushed onto the Hanish islands and begun targeting energy facilities inside Saudi Arabia, so the Bab al-Mandab now sits alongside the Strait of Hormuz as a route the market cannot assume. Saudi output at its lowest since 1990 is the result. Washington has added sanctions on networks supplying Iran's proxies. The timeline is where the disagreement sits: Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio have reportedly told the President the war could run to the end of his term in January 2029, against his own public line that it finishes after the 3 November midterms. Oman, which has been negotiating a Hormuz arrangement with Tehran, sees no sign the economic squeeze is working, and Iranian inflation is running near 90% while its leadership calls the war existential. Positioning off a near-term settlement is a bet against every party actually fighting it. The second front is fiscal and it is the one the bond market is pricing. The President used a two-hour speech in Dallas to promise every adult American **US$5,000** if Republicans hold both houses in November, a pledge costed at more than **US$1 trillion** and estimated to add up to half a percentage point to inflation. Almost nobody believes it is legislatively feasible. That is not really the point. It landed in the same week the 30-year cleared at 5.308% and the Treasury's own buyback came up short, and promises like that get priced into the long end well before anyone votes on them. When a government is managing its own long end while the executive promises trillion-dollar transfers and publicly leans on the central bank, the risk premium on 30-year paper does not fall over time. 06 What We're Watching **Tonight, US August CPI.** The last inflation print before the Fed. Headline is expected to hold at 3.4% and core to ease to 2.4%. With Brent at US$109, diesel through US$6 a gallon and PPI already showing energy feeding through, this is the print most likely to miss to the upside. **Thursday morning our time, 17 September, the Fed.** A hike is around 70% priced and fully priced by October, and this meeting carries updated projections. Chair Warsh is boxed either way: hold and it reads as political, hike seven weeks from the midterms and it is a fight. **Tuesday 29 September, the RBA.** Around 70% priced. The Australian 2-year yield is up 50bp since the late-August inflation print and Macquarie is now forecasting a 10% peak-to-trough fall in national house prices on the back of it. **Thursday night next week, the Bank of England.** A third central bank deciding what to do about an oil-driven inflation impulse it cannot influence. **Next week on the ASX: Qantas, Ramelius, Flight Centre and Inghams.** Ex-dividends today are **WiseTech**, **Carsales** and **Cleanaway**, so read those headline falls with that in mind. **Iron ore at US$99 a tonne.** It has held either side of US$100 for a month. If Chinese steel demand softens from here while the currency keeps sliding, the earnings hit to the big three arrives without the iron ore price having to break. Positioning takeaway The lesson of this week is that hard assets are not a hedge against an inflation shock when the same shock is pushing real yields up: Brent rose 7.32% and gold, silver and copper all fell alongside it. We are comfortable holding energy-linked exposure and the parts of the financial sector whose earnings rise with the risk-free rate, and we are not adding to gold miners or long-duration growth ahead of tonight's US CPI, the Fed on 17 September and the RBA on 29 September. If the defensive sleeve of your portfolio is mostly gold, this is the week to reread. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. [Book a conversation about portfolio positioning](https://www.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/book) Warm regards, \*\*Joel Threadgold\*\* Threadgold Advisory Authorised Representative of RiverX Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL 556458) ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-11-september-2026](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-11-september-2026) ## Keep reading ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/4r7Uk6edTOyPlcrlw6g9U45ZWY.png) This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-29-september-2026) ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Monday 28 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/hd5S0Zy7Phv8vCNuFnnNYUjr8.png) This Week in Markets: Monday 28 September 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-28-september-2026) # RiverX Investment Management --- Privacy Policy · Legal · © 2026 Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd. 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