--- title: "This Week in Markets: Tuesday 13 October 2026" description: US profits are racing ahead of US share prices because money costs so much, and the next fortnight of results decides whether the profits or the bond market wins. image: https://framerusercontent.com/images/K1MsmcY1wM1IKPlKqf2gkT7RxA.png --- [Skip to content](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-13-october-2026#main-content) Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd Get started Get started ![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Tuesday 13 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/K1MsmcY1wM1IKPlKqf2gkT7RxA.png) # This Week in Markets: Tuesday 13 October 2026 ![Joel Threadgold](https://d2ol7oe51mr4n9.cloudfront.net/user_3GpfS9yL2tylY89eFDCmA4LBqSJ/91d9b760-24fa-4bf6-8a43-ee30f1a97152.jpg) Joel Threadgold October 13, 2026 Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Friday 9 and Monday 12 October 2026 closes, plus Friday and Monday nights in the US and the Australian share market to midday on Tuesday 13 October 2026 US MARKETS Waiting US shares (S&P 500) slipped 0.06% on Monday night to 7,807, near a record, in the quietest session of 2026, while the chip index (SOX) fell 2.7% for a third straight loss. ASX Giving back Australian shares (ASX 200) closed Monday at 8,783, up 67 points (0.8%) and 122 points above Thursday's 8,661. As at midday today they are down 29 points (0.34%). COMMODITIES Oil firm Brent crude rose to about US$106.10 a barrel on Monday night after another tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Gold eased to US$4,166 an ounce. Dear Investor, **American companies are making far more money, and their shares have barely noticed.** Second-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies rose **35.1%** on a year earlier and first-half profits **30.1%**, the best since 2021. Yet the index is up only about **3%** over the last four months, against more than **10%** in the first five months of the year. The difference went on dearer money and dearer oil: the interest rate on the **10-year US government bond** sits at **5.24%**, near a 24-year high, and Brent crude is above **US$106**. US reporting season starts tonight with the big banks, and the bar is high. FactSet expects third-quarter profit growth of **29.6%**. Five companies (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Apple and Nvidia) delivered about **90%** of the S&P 500's gains over the past two months, according to Marcus Today. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank's minutes this morning left the door open to another rise after September's lift to **4.60%**, and the Australian 10-year bond rate is **5.33%**. In a sentence US profits are racing ahead of US share prices because money costs so much, and the next fortnight of results decides whether the profits or the bond market wins. 01 US Markets & Macro **Friday night: a solid finish.** The S&P 500 rose **0.59%**, the Nasdaq **0.64%** and the Dow **423 points** (0.83%). A report that OpenAI expects annualised revenue of **US$70 billion** or more by year end eased the AI scare from Thursday. For the week the S&P 500 rose **1.15%**, the Dow **0.93%** and the Nasdaq **0.64%**, while the small-company Russell 2000 fell **0.91%** and the chip index fell **4.30%**, ending a five-week run. Only about a third of S&P 500 companies sit above their 50-day average price, against **70%** in mid-August. University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at **46.3**, below the **47.7** expected, with current conditions at a record low. SpaceX bought **US$8 billion** of spectrum to take Starlink to mobile phones, which hit US telcos, while tower owner **Crown Castle** rose **15.6%**. **HP Inc** fell **6.9%** after global PC shipments fell **20%** in the September quarter. **Monday night: Columbus Day, half a market.** The US bond market was shut, leaving the 10-year rate at **5.24%** and the 2-year at **4.79%**. The Dow rose **196 points** (0.38%) to **51,851**, the S&P 500 fell **0.06%** to **7,807** and the Nasdaq fell **0.44%** to **27,246**. The S&P 500 traded in a **25-point** range all day. The chip index fell **2.7%**: **Micron** (-3.9%), **Intel** (-3.2%), **AMD** (-2.3%) and **Nvidia** (-1.3%). The trigger was China's biggest memory maker, CXMT, saying it can get at least **50%** more chips from each wafer on older machines that are not covered by US export rules. **Meta** rose **3.4%** after saying its new model has reached the frontier, and is up about **33%** in just over a month. **Citigroup** (+1.8%) and **JPMorgan** (+0.4%) rose ahead of their results, though the KBW bank index is down more than **10%** since mid-August. **Profits against prices.** Goldman Sachs moved to overweight shares over three months, arguing the recent fall in valuations has improved the odds into reporting season, and expects AI infrastructure companies to deliver more than half of third-quarter profit growth. Outside technology the profit picture is thin: Marcus Today cites forecasts of **5.3%** growth for financials, down from **25%** in the second quarter, and **3.2%** for consumer discretionary. Pimco's Dan Ivascyn said the 10-year rate could reach **6%**, a level not seen since 2000, and US money market funds took in **US$166.4 billion** in the week to 7 October, the most since April 2020. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said she prefers smaller rate moves made relatively quickly. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 02 Australian Market Performance **Friday.** The ASX 200 rose **56 points** to **8,717**, up **35 points** for the week. Technology bounced, with **WiseTech** (WTC +4.3%) and **Xero** (XRO +3.5%), and property trusts rose, with **Goodman** (GMG +3.2%) and **Charter Hall** (CHC +3.3%). Rate-sensitive retailers lifted, with **JB Hi-Fi** (JBH +2.1%) and **Wesfarmers** (WES +1.7%). **Fortescue** (FMG -2.9%) and **Pilbara Minerals** (PLS -5.4%) fell, and **Maas Group** (MGH -5.9%) came back from its halt lower after the Firmus float was cancelled. **Electro Optic Systems** (EOS -4.3%) rose about **20%** on its largest ever contract before closing lower. Schroders' head of fixed income said the Reserve Bank's run of rate rises may have reached its peak. **Monday.** The index jumped **67 points** (0.8%) to **8,783**. The banks led: **NAB** (+2.3%), **Macquarie** (MQG +2.1%) and **CBA** (+1.2%). **BHP** rose **2.5%** with copper, and **Northern Star** (NST +2.5%) led the gold miners. **Xero** rose **2.8%** on a broker upgrade. **Goodman** fell **1.9%**, **Pilbara** **3.7%** and **Lynas** (LYC) **3.1%**, and **Maas Group** fell another **15.1%**. **Southern Cross Electrical** (SXE +7.8%) agreed to buy HVAC contractor Entire Operations for up to **$112.1 million** and lifted its 2027 earnings guidance to at least **$110 million**. **Telstra** stayed weak after the SpaceX spectrum deal, and **Treasury Wine** (TWE) sold the Rosemount brand back to the Oatley family. **As at midday today** the index is down **29 points** (**0.34%**), with five of eleven sectors higher. Energy is the best, up **1.41%**, with **Santos** (STO +2.4%) and **Woodside** (WDS +1.8%). The big four banks are all higher, led by **NAB** (+0.6%). Technology is the worst, down **2.24%**, with **NextDC** (NXT -4.0%) and **WiseTech** (WTC -3.0%) after it repeated underlying earnings guidance of **$725 million** to **$780 million**. Materials are down **1.57%**, with **Rio Tinto** (RIO -2.1%) and **BHP** (-1.2%), and **Pilbara** is down **4.3%** as Chinese lithium futures hit 10-month lows. **Arena REIT** (ARF +3.2%) rose after confirming rent from all **27** of its Edge-run childcare centres. The Reserve Bank's minutes, released at 11:30am, show the board open to further rises after lifting the cash rate to **4.60%** in September. The Australian 10-year bond rate is **5.33%**. 03 Commodities & Currency **Oil** stays dear. Brent rose **0.97%** to **US$104.50** on Friday night, up **1.82%** for the week, then to about **US$106.10** on Monday night after another tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Hurricane Isaias has shut in **72%** of US Gulf of Mexico output, about **1.46 million** barrels a day. Shipping is the hidden cost: sending crude from the US to Asia now costs about **US$41** a barrel, roughly **45%** of the oil price, against **US$4.50** last year. **Gold** rose **1.43%** to **US$4,191** on Friday night, then eased to **US$4,166** on Monday night as the US dollar index climbed to a 2026 high of **102.59**. Copper rose **2.3%** on Friday night. Iron ore is flat at about **US$91** a tonne. Lithium was hit after the EU and China agreed to cap Chinese hybrid car exports to Europe at about **350,000** a year, with Chinese lithium futures down **10%**. The **Australian dollar** is near **69.5 US cents**, down from **69.88** on Friday night. 04 Stock Highlights & Sector Themes **The money behind AI.** Global AI infrastructure debt sales are about **US$450 billion** so far in 2026, and Marcus Today estimates the big US cloud companies now spend about **94%** of their operating cash flow on capital works, against under **50%** two years ago. Their balance sheets are clean, but the next dollar of spending is increasingly a borrowed dollar, and that is why the bond rate matters so much to the AI trade. The Korean share market fell **3.65%** on Monday and is down **5.27%** today on the memory chip scare. **Deals and listings.** **Glencore** lists on the ASX on Wednesday. Firmus, whose **$43.7 billion** float was pulled last week, is now looking at Nasdaq. **Telstra** (TLS) lifted its spend on its Aura network plan to **$1.8 billion**. **Domino's Pizza** (DMP) removed its local chief executive after less than a year. Australian floats raised **US$1.37 billion** in the first nine months of the year, the most since 2021, yet the number of listed companies fell to **1,891** in September from **2,066** in 2016. 05 Geopolitics & Trade The Houthis struck Riyadh's main airport again, forcing it to suspend operations, after earlier attacks on two Saudi airports killed at least three people. Iran hit at least **10** vessels around the Strait of Hormuz in the past week and tanker rates are back at record highs. President Trump has said the US will not attack Iran before the **3 November** midterms, while Western officials say Tehran is keeping its missile and drone factories intact. Trump said Russia agreed to release diesel supplies of about **2.25 million** barrels in October, **3.75 million** in November and **7.5 million** after that, a small amount against the global shortfall. Australia said it does not need Russian fuel. Ukraine's president said strikes on Russia will continue despite the proposed energy truce. 06 What We're Watching **Tuesday night 13 October.** US reporting season starts with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. **Wednesday 14 October.** Glencore lists on the ASX. US inflation figures come out that night, the last before the US central bank meets. **Thursday 15 October.** Australian jobs figures (forecast **15,900** new jobs, unemployment steady at **4.6%**) and **Bank of Queensland**'s full-year result. TSMC reports. **Tuesday 27 October.** The big US tech companies begin reporting. **Wednesday 28 October.** The US central bank meets, with the chance of a rise near **20%**. **Tuesday 3 November.** The Reserve Bank's next decision, and the US midterm elections. Positioning takeaway The profits are real. S&P 500 companies grew earnings 35.1% in the second quarter, yet the index has moved about 3% in four months, because a 5.24% US bond rate and US$106 oil took the gain. Five companies did about 90% of the lifting over two months. Here, the cash rate is 4.60% and the minutes do not rule out more. We want results that beat, not results that match, before we pay more for growth. Wednesday night's US inflation figure is the next test. ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-13-october-2026](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-13-october-2026) ## Keep reading ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Friday 9 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/Sp7gluwTqmjZFZoZd3WsI29fzgs.png) This Week in Markets: Friday 9 October 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-9-october-2026) ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Tuesday 6 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/ttQoqq34qIMVyfkuYKg7updMRmw.png) This Week in Markets: Tuesday 6 October 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-6-october-2026) # RiverX Investment Management --- Privacy Policy · Legal · © 2026 Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd. 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