This Week in Markets: Tuesday 18 August 2026

Threadgold Advisory Desk | Covering: Friday 14 & Monday 17 August 2026 (Marcus Weekend 15 August, no trading)

Sentiment Bar

US MARKETS: Cautious Sentiment cracked, yields spiked, the record close didn't last a week.

ASX: Divided Miners and gold rallied while retail earnings got smashed.

COMMODITIES: Bid Oil, gold and long yields all moved higher together on the Hormuz standoff.

Dear Investor,

The 60-day truce between the US and Iran expired on Monday, and markets started pricing in exactly the risk it was supposed to remove. Trump said he "didn't see the war ending anytime soon" and threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of Strait of Hormuz talks. An Iranian official said Tehran was ready to go "fully offensive" on control of the strait. Brent jumped over 2% to top US$89, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.31%, a 19-year high. That combination, oil and long yields rising together, is not a simple flight to safety. It's the bond market pricing growth risk and inflation risk at the same time.

It was already a shakier week before Monday's headlines. The S&P 500 closed above 7,800 for the first time on Wednesday, then gave a little back Friday on two soft data points landing the same day: July retail sales fell 0.6%, the sharpest drop since May 2025, and preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 51.0 from July's 55.2, the first decline in three months. On the ASX, reporting season did more damage than the geopolitics: JB Hi-Fi (JBH) fell 12.3% on soft guidance while miners and gold names rallied on the very same Hormuz headlines that were hurting Wall Street.

In a sentence: the Iran truce lapsed, oil and bond yields moved higher together, and two soft US data prints landed in the same week the S&P 500 was still digesting its first close above 7,800.

01: US Markets & Macro

Wednesday's session took the S&P 500 through 7,800 for the first time. It didn't hold. Friday, the index eased to 7,785.76 (-0.2%), the Dow slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%, though the S&P still logged a third straight weekly gain and remains on pace for its strongest August in more than 40 years. The pullback came alongside two data points worth more attention than the daily move suggests. July retail sales came in at US$763.6bn, down 0.6% month on month, the largest drop since May 2025 and a surprise against expectations for a small rise; gas station sales alone fell 0.9% as Hormuz-driven fuel prices bit. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 51.0 from July's final 55.2, missing forecasts near 54.5-55 and marking the first decline in three months. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3%. The tax-refund tailwind that propped up spring spending is fading, and households are starting to say so.

Monday turned it from a wobble into a trend. The S&P 500 fell to 7,745.06 (-0.52%), the Nasdaq to 26,644.91 (-0.32%) and the Dow to 53,459.78 (-0.51%), a second straight down session as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired. The 30-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.31%, its highest level since June 2007, while the 10-year sits at 4.72%. We'd normally read a geopolitical shock as a rush into bonds. Instead the long end sold off alongside equities, which tells you the market is worried about inflation from higher energy prices as much as it's worried about the conflict itself. Records don't last forever. This one lasted two trading days.

02: Australian Market Performance

Friday was a rough finish to a rough week: the ASX 200 closed at 9,115.2 (-0.8%), down 1.6% for the week. Technology was the standout, up 2.83%, led by Seek (SEK +9.13% to $15.18), Block (XYZ +6.07%), WiseTech (WTC +5.55%) and Xero (XRO +5.54%). Materials fell 2.58% and gold 2.38% as the metals complex cooled, with industrials down 1.38% and REITs and healthcare each off around 0.7%.

Monday the index shed a further 42 points to 9,073.2 (-0.46%), tracking Wall Street's weakness and the Hormuz escalation, but reporting season, not geopolitics, drove the biggest individual moves. NAB lifted quarterly profit but disappointed on quality: a $299m impairment charge and more loans flagged "on watch" as home lending softens sent the stock down 4.6%. JB Hi-Fi (JBH) collapsed 12.3% to around $70, its worst level since early June, after flagging softer fourth-quarter and July trading and citing Fair Work wage increases as a further margin pressure; the contagion spread to Harvey Norman (HVN -4.6%) and Wesfarmers (WES -4.4%). Lendlease (LLC) fell 11.2% on a $749m loss and a dividend cut. Financials broadly struggled: ANZ -1.7%, Suncorp -4.6%. On the other side of the ledger, the exact same oil and gold move hurting US equities gave the resources complex a lift: BHP +1.4%, Newmont +3.8%, Northern Star (NST +3%), and uranium miners Paladin (PDN) and Deep Yellow (DYL) both up more than 4%. Mesoblast (MSB) jumped 10.9% on positive clinical trial data. Same index, two very different weeks, depending on which sector you were sitting in.

03: Commodities & Currency

Gold fell 1.11% to US$4,359.80 on Friday before bouncing back toward US$4,395-4,437 (+0.4-0.45%) on Monday as the Hormuz escalation brought safe-haven demand back, keeping bullion in record territory. Brent crude rose 0.62% to US$87.47 Friday, then jumped through US$89, up more than 2% on Monday, on the memorandum's expiry and Trump's threat against Oman; WTI traded near US$82. Iron ore sat at US$95.17 a tonne (+0.13%) on Friday, the most recent confirmed print available for this edition. AUD/USD eased to 0.7064 Friday before firming toward 0.7090-0.7100 on Monday, a softer US dollar doing more work than any domestic driver.

Gold and oil rising together with equities falling is not the pattern we saw through most of the March-July Hormuz volatility, where oil spiked and gold sometimes lagged. This time both moved as one, alongside the surge in long-dated yields. That's a market treating the standoff as an inflation problem, not just a geopolitical one.

04: Reporting Season & Stock Highlights

Reporting season delivered the sharpest single-day moves of the fortnight, and none of them were about Iran. JB Hi-Fi's guidance miss and Lendlease's $749m loss between them wiped over 20% off two ASX 100 names in one session, while NAB's rising impairment charge is the kind of detail that matters more than the headline profit beat. None of the three moves were driven by macro, they were driven by companies telling the market their own numbers were softer than priced in.

Two of the market's bigger names report today, Tuesday 18 August, outside this edition's coverage window but worth flagging now. BHP delivered a record 265 million tonnes of iron ore and 1,953kt of copper in FY26, within raised guidance, with realised copper prices up 35% year on year to US$5.74/lb. The number to watch in today's result is FY27 copper guidance, already flagged at 1,650-1,800kt, a cut of more than 150kt on FY26's actual output as Escondida's ore grade declines. CSL also reports today. Northern Star Resources follows on Thursday.

05: Geopolitics & Trade

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding, a 60-day arrangement struck in June, was meant to hold a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and have Iran reaffirm it would not pursue nuclear weapons, in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports. It expired Monday with no extension in place. Both sides had spent weeks accusing the other of breaching it, and Trump reportedly considered the arrangement "over" within a month of signing it.

Monday's escalation was sharper than a simple lapse. Trump threatened to bomb Oman, which has been mediating Hormuz-access talks between Washington and Tehran, if it "gets in the way." An Iranian official said the country was prepared to shift to a "fully offensive" posture over control of the strait, the waterway that carries roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil. We've been here before, the ceasefire-collapse-escalation cycle has repeated multiple times since March. What's different this time is the bond market's reaction: oil and the 30-year yield rose together, which is a bet on higher energy-driven inflation, not just a bet on conflict.

06: What We're Watching

• BHP FY26 result, released before market open today, Tuesday 18 August. FY27 copper guidance of 1,650-1,800kt is already known; the detail to watch is dividend and capital allocation commentary given the copper step-down.
• CSL FY26 result, also today. Prior guidance pointed to revenue near US$15.2bn.
• Northern Star Resources FY26 result, Thursday 20 August, guided to 1.543moz of production at AISC of $2,698/oz.
• The Strait of Hormuz standoff. No extension of the MoU is in place, and Trump's threat against Oman raises the stakes on the mediation effort. This remains the single biggest swing factor for oil, gold and risk sentiment into next week.
• Whether the softer US data from Friday, retail sales and consumer sentiment both missing, is the start of a trend or a one-off. One data point is noise. Two in the same week from different corners of the consumer economy is worth watching closely.

Positioning takeaway: the bond market is now pricing growth risk and inflation risk at the same time, and the US consumer showed its first real cracks in three months on the same day. We're not making binary bets on Hormuz headlines, this cycle of escalation and de-escalation has reversed more than once since March. Quality resources and gold exposure earns its keep in exactly this kind of environment, and reporting season is the more reliable signal right now: JB Hi-Fi and Lendlease told the market more about their own businesses in one session than the geopolitics told us about the broader market.

Book a conversation about portfolio positioning

Warm regards, Joel Threadgold Threadgold Advisory Private Wealth Adviser | M: 0483 958 272 | AR: 001297336

Disclaimer

This communication is general information only and does not constitute personal financial advice. It is intended for wholesale clients as defined by the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any yield figures referenced are indicative and not guaranteed.

Joel Threadgold (AR 001297336) is an Authorised Representative of RiverX Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL 556458), trading as Threadgold Advisory.