--- title: "This Week in Markets: Friday 2 October 2026" description: Bonds set the mood all week, with the US 10-year rate at a 24-year high on Wednesday night and Australian shares down 2.0% on Thursday, and the first sign of relief only arrived overnight. image: https://framerusercontent.com/images/GFutzse0MWW3mBuKMnXQ5NOPp4A.png --- [Skip to content](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-2-october-2026#main-content) Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd Get started Get started ![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Friday 2 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/GFutzse0MWW3mBuKMnXQ5NOPp4A.png) # This Week in Markets: Friday 2 October 2026 ![Joel Threadgold](https://d2ol7oe51mr4n9.cloudfront.net/user_3GpfS9yL2tylY89eFDCmA4LBqSJ/91d9b760-24fa-4bf6-8a43-ee30f1a97152.jpg) Joel Threadgold October 2, 2026 Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Tuesday 29 September to Thursday 1 October 2026 closes, plus Thursday night in the US and the Australian share market to midday on Friday 2 October 2026 US MARKETS Wobbly US shares (S&P 500) fell 0.25% on Wednesday night, their worst month since June, as the interest rate on the US 10-year government bond hit 5.29%, its highest since 2002. On Thursday night shares edged up 0.19% as that rate eased to 5.24%. ASX Bruised Australian shares (ASX 200) fell 175 points (2.0%) to 8,614 on Thursday, their worst day in this stretch. As at midday today they are up 27 points (0.32%). COMMODITIES Oil jumps Brent crude rose 5.5% overnight to US$103.80 a barrel after the US moved to send a third aircraft carrier group and 10,000 more troops to the Middle East. Gold edged up 0.4% to about US$4,173 an ounce. Dear Investor, **Bond rates, not shares, ran the week, and Thursday showed what happens when they run hot.** The interest rate on the US 10-year government bond rose to **5.29%** on Wednesday night, its highest since **2002**, and the 30-year rate hit **5.63%**. A softer-than-expected US inflation reading (core PCE) did nothing to stop it, because oil held near **US$100** a barrel. The next day Australian shares fell **2.0%**, with **all 11 sectors** lower. It was a miserable first day of the new quarter, and the banks led it down. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate **25 basis points** (0.25 of a percentage point) to **4.60%** on Tuesday, a **15-year high** and the fourth rise this year, in a unanimous vote. On Wednesday, Australian inflation for August came in at **4.0%** a year, up from **3.5%** in July and in line with forecasts. Overnight the picture turned a little kinder: the US 10-year rate eased to **5.24%**, the best day for US 2-year rates since July, and the chance of a US central bank rise at its **28 October** meeting fell from about **40%** to about **26%**. In a sentence Bonds set the mood all week, with the US 10-year rate at a 24-year high on Wednesday night and Australian shares down 2.0% on Thursday, and the first sign of relief only arrived overnight. 01 US Markets & Macro **Bonds were the story.** On Tuesday night the US 10-year rate edged up to **5.24%**, the 30-year rate hit **5.57%**, its highest close since **2002**, and US consumer confidence fell to **81.9** in September, the lowest since **April 2014**. On Wednesday night the 10-year rate rose **4.2 basis points** to **5.287%** and the 30-year to **5.632%**, both highs since **2002**. Then on Thursday night, after US central bank vice chair Philip Jefferson and New York branch president Williams argued for patience, the 10-year rate fell **4.9 basis points** to **5.238%** and the 2-year rate fell **10.6 basis points** to **4.794%**, its best day since July. The chance of a US central bank rise at the 28 October meeting went from about **50%** at the start of the week to under **40%** after Wednesday's inflation reading, then to about **26%** after Thursday's comments. Marcus Today notes the relief may owe more to European weakness (France's CAC fell **1.6%**, Spain's IBEX **2.2%**) than to any change in US inflation. **Shares drifted.** US shares (S&P 500) fell **0.17%** on Tuesday night and **0.25%** on Wednesday night, which left September as their worst month since **June**, then rose **0.19%** on Thursday night. US tech shares (Nasdaq) were **-0.09%**, **+0.24%** and **+0.04%**. The Dow lost **444 points** on Wednesday night. The chip index (SOX) gained **1.32%** and **1.59%** on Tuesday and Thursday nights, and **Micron** (+3.0% on Thursday) said demand for the memory chips used in AI was "unprecedented", although it also warned that rising costs are squeezing its margins. **Accenture** (+15.8%) beat on new bookings and dented the idea that AI will eat consulting. **Apple** (-2.7% on Tuesday night) fell as its new chief executive, John Ternus, moved to overhaul the company, and **Nike** (-3.6%) missed on China sales. **OpenAI** cancelled the October release of its newest model, citing control issues, and deferred its own listing. 02 Australian Market Performance **Tuesday.** The ASX 200 rose **30 points** (**0.3%**) to **8,709** after the Reserve Bank lifted rates as expected. The market dipped, then pushed higher after Governor Michele Bullock's press conference. **Megaport** (MP1 +9.4%) and **Codan** (CDA +23.9%) led it, Codan after guiding to a first-half profit of at least **$160 million**, double a year earlier, on demand for drone components. **BHP** (BHP +1.4%) and **Rio Tinto** (RIO +0.8%) rose. **Wednesday.** The index rose **80 points** (**0.9%**) to **8,789** after the inflation figure, on hopes that the last rate rise was the last. Rate-sensitive stocks rallied hard: **Goodman Group** (GMG +3.9%), **GPT Group** (GPT +2.9%), **Stockland** (SGP +4.8%), **Wesfarmers** (WES +3.0%) and **JB Hi-Fi** (JBH +4.7%). **REA Group** (REA +5.9%) rose after buying in Ireland. The banks sat out the rally. Economists split: Westpac's Luci Ellis called a November rise the base case, while Barrenjoey sees rates on hold at 4.60%. **Thursday.** The index fell **175 points** (**2.0%**) to **8,614**, and every sector fell. **Westpac** (WBC -3.3%) and **ANZ** (ANZ -2.9%) led the banks down, **CSL** (CSL -3.3%) gave back ground after rising **5.5%** in September, and **Suncorp** (SUN -7.4%) fell after denying takeover talk. **Transurban** (TCL -1.7%) fell after borrowing **$4.5 billion** to buy more of its Sydney toll roads from a Canadian pension fund. The Australian 10-year rate ended at about **5.39%**. By our count the index closed Thursday 65 points below Monday's close of 8,679, about 0.7% lower over the three sessions. **As at midday today** the index is up **27 points** (**0.32%**) with nine of eleven sectors higher. Technology is the best, up **3.58%**, with **Data#3** (DTL +9.3%) upgraded by Jarden a day after a trading update. Energy is up **1.80%** on oil, and property trusts are the worst, down **1.13%**. The 10-year rate is down **3.7 basis points** to **5.37%**. Futures pointed to a rise of **45 points** at the open. 03 Commodities & Currency **Oil** swung around. Brent fell **2.66%** to **US$95.90** on Tuesday night after the US ordered a further release from its emergency reserve, then rose **2.04%** to **US$97.90** on Wednesday night, then jumped **5.49%** to **US$103.80** overnight after China halted fuel exports and the Pentagon moved to send a third carrier group and **10,000** more troops to the Middle East. US crude (WTI) rose **2.84%** to **US$92.90**. Iran also signalled it may allow nuclear inspectors back for sanctions relief, which has not yet calmed anything. **Gold** is steadying after its rout. It fell **3.5%** to about **US$4,135** on Monday night, then recovered **0.30%**, **0.19%** and **0.42%** over the next three nights to about **US$4,173**. Gold miners did not follow: the US gold miners fund fell **1.2%** overnight. **Copper** fell **0.96%** to **US$6.60** a pound, and **iron ore** is at about **US$96.60** a tonne. The **Australian dollar** is near **69.2 US cents**, down from about **70.2** a week ago, as the US dollar index rose **0.54%** overnight to **102.00**. Bitcoin is about **US$85,010**. 04 Stock Highlights & Sector Themes **Firmus** is the float everyone is watching. The AI data centre company is raising **US$5 billion** (about **$7 billion**) at **$11** a share, which would value it at **$43.7 billion**, and bids are already in to cover the raising, which may be upsized by **US$500 million**. That would make it the biggest company to list in Australia since **Telstra** in the 1990s. Marcus Today thinks the top-end valuations floated, up to US$70 billion, are silly, and a possible sign of froth. We would add one data point. In the US, the average new listing has lost about **4%** this year against a rise of about **12%** for US shares (S&P 500), and **Anthropic** plans an investor day on **14 October** ahead of a listing as early as mid-November at a valuation of **US$1.8 to US$2 trillion**. **The rare earths deal.** **Lynas** (LYC -8.6%) agreed to buy **Meteoric Resources** (MEI +47.1%) for **$968 million** in shares. **Northern Star** (NST +1.3% at midday) is reported to be preparing to sell some non-core assets, after rejecting a **$38.7 billion** cash-and-share proposal from Gold Fields. **Challenger** (CGF) started another buyback of up to **$300 million**, and **QBE** (QBE +2.8% at midday) was upgraded by Macquarie, which expects a further buyback. **Origin Energy** (ORG) abandoned a wind project after costs rose **50%**. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. **Housing is cooling.** Cotality says Sydney home prices are almost **9%** below their February peak, with the median about **$1.2 million**, and expects values to keep falling into **2027** on higher rates. Job vacancies fell to **325,000** in August. 05 Geopolitics & Trade The Middle East is back in the price. Overnight the Pentagon moved to add a third aircraft carrier group and **10,000** troops, and China halted fuel exports. Iran received a US response to its ceasefire proposal on Thursday, and has since signalled it may let nuclear inspectors back in. No deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. In the US, the White House held talks on a ban on diesel exports as the November midterm elections near. On trade, China signalled economic stimulus on Tuesday to counter a worsening slowdown, and Mexico grew more confident of a US deal to cut steel and car tariffs. Asian markets were mostly lower on Friday morning: the Hang Seng fell **2.65%** and Japan's Topix **0.91%**. In Washington, Donald Trump called for former US central bank chair Jerome Powell to resign from its board over the cost of renovating its headquarters. 06 What We're Watching **Friday 2 October.** The US jobs report tonight. Forecasters expect about **90,000** new jobs. **Sunday 4 October.** The OPEC+ oil producers meet. **Next week.** The minutes of the last US central bank meeting are the main release, with a few building permit and manufacturing surveys otherwise. **Wednesday 14 October.** Anthropic's investor day, ahead of a possible listing in mid-November. **Wednesday 28 October.** The US central bank meets again. The Reserve Bank's next decision is **Tuesday 3 November**. Positioning takeaway The bond market is still the boss. A government bond paying 5.2% is competition for every other investment, and Thursday's 2.0% fall in Australian shares was what it looks like when that competition gets noticed. The relief overnight is welcome but one night does not make a trend, and oil at US$103.80 is the thing that could take it away. We are not chasing the bounce. Tonight's jobs report is the number that matters, and the Firmus float is the best sign of how much risk the market is still willing to price in. ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-2-october-2026](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-2-october-2026) ## Keep reading ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/4r7Uk6edTOyPlcrlw6g9U45ZWY.png) This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-29-september-2026) ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Monday 28 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/hd5S0Zy7Phv8vCNuFnnNYUjr8.png) This Week in Markets: Monday 28 September 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-28-september-2026) # RiverX Investment Management --- Privacy Policy · Legal · © 2026 Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd. 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