---
title: "This Week in Markets: Wednesday 21 October 2026"
description: Investors have stopped paying for AI promises and want cash flow first, and the Australian share market, built on banks, miners and healthcare, has barely felt it.
---

[Threadgold Advisory Insights](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights)

# [This Week in Markets: Wednesday 21 October 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-21-october-2026)

 Written by [Joel Threadgold](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/author/joel-threadgold) | Oct 20, 2026, 10:21:17 PM

Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Friday 16, Monday 19 and Tuesday 20 October 2026 closes, plus Friday, Monday and Tuesday nights in the US

US MARKETS

Shaken

The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% in the week to Friday night, its chip index lost eight sessions in a row, then bounced 1.61% on Monday night before going flat on Tuesday night.

ASX

Steady

Australian shares (ASX 200) rose about 1% in the same week, closed at 8,846 on Monday and slipped 28.8 points to 8,816.9 on Tuesday.

COMMODITIES

Oil high

Brent crude touched its highest price since May, US$109.86 a barrel, on Friday night and was at about US$108.90 on Tuesday night.

Dear Investor,

**In the week to Friday night the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% while the ASX 200 rose about 1%, and that gap is the story.** American investors spent the week marking down anything priced on artificial intelligence. The chip index (SOX) fell **3.8%** on Friday night alone, its **eighth** straight loss and its longest losing run since May 2006, leaving it more than **23%** below its June record. **CoreWeave**, the company that rents out AI computing power and whose bonds now trade at distressed prices, fell about **25%** for the week.

Then the selling reached the share floats. Korean data centre company **Elice** fell more than **30%** on its first day of trade on Tuesday. Reuters reported that investors have discussed a valuation of about **US$1.5 trillion** for the coming **Anthropic** float, down from talk of **US$2 trillion**. Marcus Today counts the average US float this year down **4%**, against the S&P 500 up **12%**. In Australia, the ASX 200 has little AI to lose: it closed Tuesday at **8,816.9**, while the bigger local news was **NAB** cutting **2,500** jobs.

In a sentence

Investors have stopped paying for AI promises and want cash flow first, and the Australian share market, built on banks, miners and healthcare, has barely felt it.

01  
US Markets & Macro

**Friday night: the worst of it.** The S&P 500 fell **1.09%**, the Nasdaq **2.14%** and the Dow **0.34%**. For the week the S&P 500 lost about **2%**, the Nasdaq more than **4%** and the Nasdaq 100 **5.5%**, while the Dow rose **0.7%**. Chip makers led the falls: **AMD** (-6.0%), **Intel** (-5.8%), **Micron** (-5.6%) and **Applied Materials** (-4.8%). **Oracle** fell **4.6%** and software **4.8%**. CoreWeave fell **11.9%**, with its total debt now above **US$51 billion**. The interest rate on the **10-year US government bond** was flat at **5.08%**, and Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said he had turned cautious for the next month on higher bond rates, oil and the AI share price action.

**Monday night: an oversold bounce.** The S&P 500 rose **0.41%** to **7,690.7**, the Nasdaq **1.11%** and the Dow fell **36 points**. The chip index rose **1.61%**, ending its eight-day losing run, with **Micron** up **3.0%** and **Nvidia** **1.4%**. **Amazon** rose **5.0%** and **Tesla** **3.8%**. CoreWeave rose as much as **7.4%** after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to a buy, then gave the gain back to close lower. The 10-year rate rose **7.1 basis points** to **5.15%** as money left bonds for shares, and Wells Fargo called it one of the weakest starts to a US earnings season on record.

**Tuesday night: everything but tech.** The S&P 500 rose **0.28%**, the Nasdaq slipped **0.02%** and the Dow rose **533 points**. The equal-weight S&P 500 (every company counted the same) rose **1.15%**, smaller companies (Russell 2000) **1.7%** and regional banks **2.0%**, while the chip index fell **0.3%**. The 10-year rate fell **3.6 basis points** to **5.11%**. **SpaceX** reported third quarter revenue up **161%** to **US$14.6 billion**, against **US$12.7 billion** expected, and a profit of **US$4.4 billion**. Anthropic disclosed a net loss of more than **US$80 billion** for the first half. The chance of a US rate hold on 28 October sits at about **82%**. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

02  
Australian Market Performance

**Friday.** The ASX 200 jumped **87 points** to **8,807**, up about **90 points** for the week. Technology bounced, with **WiseTech** (WTC +9.0%) and **NextDC** (NXT +3.6%), and the All Tech index rose **4.4%**. Miners recovered, led by **BHP** (+3.5%), and healthcare was strong, with **CSL** (+2.8%) and **Pro Medicus** (PME +7.4%). Banks gave back some of Thursday's gain: **CBA** (-1.1%) and **NAB** (-1.0%). **Maas Group** (MGH) rose **14.8%** after its update. The Australian 10-year bond rate held at **5.22%**.

**Monday.** The index rose another **39 points** to **8,846**. Takeovers set the tone: **Challenger** (CGF) rose **19.3%** on an approach from Japanese insurer TAL, **Cromwell** (CWY) **20.2%** on a scheme with EQT, and **Ingenia** (INA) **7.1%**. **CBA** rose **0.7%**. Technology fell again, with **Xero** (XRO -2.4%), and **NextDC** went into a trading halt over power supply to a Melbourne data centre. **Woodside** (WDS) rose **2.7%** with oil near **US$110**. Reserve Bank assistant governor Chris Kent said the jobs market is loosening faster than the bank predicted.

**Tuesday.** The index fell **28.8 points** (0.33%) to **8,816.9**, with **115** companies down and **69** up. **BHP** fell **1.6%** after its copper production dropped **19%** on the previous quarter to **401,000** tonnes and iron ore output of **66.5 million** tonnes missed the **68.0 million** expected. **NAB** fell **1.8%** after announcing **2,500** job cuts, **6%** of its staff, with a **$300 million** restructuring charge and **1,500** roles gone by the end of December. **Westpac** (WBC -0.8%) booked a **$41 million** legal cost. Defensive shares carried the day: consumer staples rose **1.14%**, with **Coles** (COL +1.8%) and **Woolworths** (WOW +1.1%), and **Cochlear** (COH) rose **5.2%**. **HUB24** (HUB +3.9%) lifted funds under administration to **$168 billion** from **$164 billion**. The Australian dollar finished near **69.8 US cents**.

03  
Commodities & Currency

**Oil** stayed high. Brent crude rose **3.7%** to **US$109.86** on Friday night, its highest since May, as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued and Ukraine said it would keep striking Russian refineries. It eased to **US$109.40** on Monday night and about **US$108.90** on Tuesday night on reports of progress in US and Iran talks, which another diplomat disputed. US oil (WTI) fell back below **US$100**, to **US$98.40**, on Monday night.

**Metals** were soft. Gold rose **0.3%** to **US$4,159.50** on Friday night, then fell **0.49%** to **US$4,139** on Monday night as US bond rates rose. Copper fell over the week as a strike at a large Chilean mine ended. The **Australian dollar** rose to about **69.4 US cents** on Friday night and **69.8** by Tuesday. The Australian 10-year bond rate reached **5.29%** on Monday night.

04  
Stock Highlights & Sector Themes

**The float window is closing for AI.** Firmus pulled its **$44 billion** ASX float on 9 October after super funds and fund managers declined to bid. Since then Blackstone-owned AirTrunk has postponed a **US$1.5 billion** raise, the target valuation for UK data centre company Nscale has fallen from **US$30 billion** to between **US$16 billion** and **US$19 billion** after Microsoft walked away as its anchor tenant, and Elice fell more than **30%** on debut. The common thread: bond rates above **5%** and buyers who will not pay up for data centres funded by debt and not yet earning revenue.

**Australia's counterweight is cost cutting.** NAB's **2,500** job cuts are its biggest restructure since 2019 and follow ANZ's **3,500** last year. With the big bank results starting with Westpac on **2 November**, cost guidance will matter as much as profit. Takeover activity is the other local theme: Challenger, Cromwell and Ingenia all moved on bids or approaches on Monday.

05  
Geopolitics & Trade

Iran escalated its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in the week to Friday, and Saudi Arabia postponed its "Davos in the Desert" investment conference to 2027 after Houthi attacks. By Tuesday night reports said Pakistan and Qatar had delivered a US and Iran peace proposal. French government bonds sold off after a weekend of violent unrest, with the French 10-year rate up **14 basis points** on Monday night. China's economy grew **4.5%** on the year in the September quarter, up from **4.3%**, and China cut its holdings of US government bonds to an 18-year low in August.

06  
What We're Watching

**Wednesday night 21 October.** Meta, Tesla and Lam Research report. Meta's spending on AI is forecast at **US$40.8 billion** for the quarter.

**Wednesday 28 October.** Australian inflation for the September quarter, the last big reading before the Reserve Bank meets, and the US central bank's decision, with a hold priced at about **82%**.

**Monday 2 November.** Westpac's full-year result. **NAB** follows on **Thursday 5 November**.

**Tuesday 3 November.** The Reserve Bank's next decision, on the same day as the US midterm elections. The cash rate is **4.60%**.

Positioning takeaway

The selling hit AI promises, not the whole market. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% in a week while the ASX 200 rose about 1%, because Australian shares own little of that trade. We are watching how the AI borrowers fund themselves and Australian inflation on 28 October before we pay up for growth.

[View full post](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-21-october-2026)

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