--- title: "This Week in Markets: Friday 23 October 2026" description: AI has turned into a borrowing race and lenders are getting choosy, but the Australian market, carried by its banks, has barely flinched, and the bigger local question is whether the Reserve Bank lifts rates on Cup Day. image: https://framerusercontent.com/images/OmpFu107sSXRkGmvaowaSMVviVw.png --- [Skip to content](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-23-october-2026#main-content) Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd Get started Get started ![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Friday 23 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/OmpFu107sSXRkGmvaowaSMVviVw.png) # This Week in Markets: Friday 23 October 2026 ![Joel Threadgold](https://d2ol7oe51mr4n9.cloudfront.net/user_3GpfS9yL2tylY89eFDCmA4LBqSJ/91d9b760-24fa-4bf6-8a43-ee30f1a97152.jpg) Joel Threadgold October 23, 2026 Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Wednesday 21 and Thursday 22 October 2026 closes, plus Wednesday and Thursday nights in the US, through to Friday 23 October 2pm US MARKETS Rattled The Nasdaq rose 1.05% on Wednesday night on SpaceX's results, then fell 2.60% on Thursday night after Meta disclosed US$825 billion of future AI spending commitments. ASX Holding The ASX 200 rose 14 points to 8,831 on Wednesday, fell 38 points to 8,793 on Thursday and was down 25 points (0.28%) at midday today, with the banks holding it up. COMMODITIES Oil up, gold down Brent crude rose 3.0% to US$112.80 on Thursday night, a five-month high, while gold fell 2.1% to US$4,043 an ounce. Dear Investor, **Meta now owes the future US$825 billion for artificial intelligence, and on Thursday night the market decided that was a borrowing problem, not a growth story.** Meta's September quarter beat on revenue (US$64.6 billion, up 26%) and guided the December quarter above forecasts. It did not matter. The company disclosed US$825 billion of future commitments for data centre leases, computing power, energy and hardware, up from about US$700 billion in July. That is roughly US$125 billion of new promises in one quarter. Meta fell **7.0%**, the US chip index (SOX) fell **6.7%**, its worst day in five months, and the Nasdaq fell **2.60%**. The cost of insuring Meta's debt against default hit a record. Yet the Dow rose **12 points**, and the equal-weight S&P 500 (every company counted the same) beat the normal index by about **1.9 percentage points**, its widest margin in more than two years. The money did not leave the market; it left AI hardware. Here, the ASX 200 was down only **25 points** at midday, because the big four banks were up **2.35%** while gold miners and BHP took the hit. In a sentence AI has turned into a borrowing race and lenders are getting choosy, but the Australian market, carried by its banks, has barely flinched, and the bigger local question is whether the Reserve Bank lifts rates on Cup Day. 01 US Markets & Macro **Wednesday night: SpaceX lifts the AI trade.** The S&P 500 rose **0.58%** to **7,757**, the Nasdaq **1.05%** to **26,703** and the Dow **357 points** to **52,856**. **SpaceX** rose **7.8%** after third quarter revenue of **US$14.6 billion**, up **161%**, and guidance for **US$33 billion to US$37 billion** of revenue in the March quarter against about **US$22 billion** expected. It said new computing contracts are being signed at prices that pay back the build inside a year, the first hard payback number the AI debate has had. **Super Micro** rose **9.5%** on a revenue upgrade and the chip index rose **1.97%**. **Netflix** fell **5.3%** after cutting its advertising outlook. After the close, **Meta** and **Tesla** both beat. **Thursday night: the bill arrives.** The S&P 500 fell **1.21%**, the Nasdaq **2.60%** and the Dow rose **12 points**. Meta fell **7.0%** on its commitments disclosure. **Lam Research** fell **11.8%** on soft guidance, with **Applied Materials** (-8.2%), **Intel** (-8.0%), **Micron** (-6.3%) and **Nvidia** (-4.4%) also lower. SpaceX gave back about **9%** and CoreWeave fell about **10%**. **Tesla** fell **3.1%** after cutting its 2026 spending plans, the mirror image of Meta's punishment. Consumer staples rose **3.3%**, with **Procter & Gamble** (+5.6%) and **Lockheed Martin** (+7.0%, a record **US$292 billion** order backlog) among the winners. Bonds were the safe place. The interest rate on the **10-year US government bond** fell **0.16 points** to **4.96%**, the biggest one-day bond rally in more than a year, from **5.12%** on Wednesday night. Weekly US jobless claims of **194,000** were the lowest since mid-July. Markets price only a small chance of a US rate rise at next Wednesday's meeting. OpenAI cut its valuation ambitions to **US$1.25 trillion** from **US$1.4 trillion**. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 02 Australian Market Performance **Wednesday.** The ASX 200 rose **14 points** (0.16%) to **8,831**. Reserve Bank deputy governor **Andrew Hauser** said the inflation outlook had deteriorated and underlying inflation is likely running above the bank's forecasts, and the Australian 2-year bond rate rose **0.056 points** to **4.95%**. The Australian 10-year rate rose to **5.28%**. **Thursday.** The index fell **38 points** to **8,793**, well off its lows, with the banks steady. Rate-sensitive shares took the pressure. **Nick Scali** (NCK) fell about **17%** at midday after guiding first-half profit of **$28 million to $32 million**, down from **$41 million**, as the housing slowdown hit furniture sales. **Mirvac** (MGR) fell **2.7%** at midday after flagging home sales down nearly a third in three months. **Fortescue** (FMG) fell **2.8%** after warning its dispute with China could hit guidance, and **Magellan** (MFG) fell **7.8%**. **Brambles** (BXB) rose **4.9%** after holding its guidance. **NextDC** (NXT) bounced **7.9%** at midday after Wednesday's sell-off over power supply delays in Melbourne. **Friday to 2pm (the market is still trading).** As at midday the ASX 200 was down **25 points** (0.28%), with **eight** of 11 sectors higher. The big four banks were up **2.35%**: **CBA** +2.7%, **NAB** +2.5%, **Westpac** +2.3%, **ANZ** +0.9%. Retailers bounced, with **JB Hi-Fi** (JBH +2.7%) and **Wesfarmers** (WES +2.4%). Gold miners were down **4.46%** and materials **3.45%**, with **BHP** (-3.5%), **Lynas** (LYC -5.2%) and **Pilbara Minerals** (PLS -6.1%) lower. Technology fell **1.70%**, with **WiseTech** (WTC -3.6%) and **NextDC** (-5.6%). **Zip** (ZIP) was down about **30%** after a **$10.1 million** fraud loss in the US, despite holding its **$340 million** cash earnings guidance. The Australian 10-year bond rate was down **0.097 points** to **5.15%** and the Australian dollar was near **70.2 US cents**. 03 Commodities & Currency **Oil** hit a five-month high. Brent crude rose **0.59%** to **US$109.50** on Wednesday night after the US ordered some diplomatic staff out of Saudi Arabia, then **3.0%** to **US$112.80** on Thursday night after drone strikes on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field and Houthi attacks on the port of Yanbu. Exports through the Strait of Hormuz have picked up in recent weeks, which suggests the move is a fear premium more than lost supply. US oil (WTI) rose to **US$99.10**. **Gold** did not act as a safe haven. It fell **2.1%** to **US$4,043** an ounce on Thursday night even as bond rates dropped, with silver down **5.8%** and copper **2.6%**. Iron ore was flat at **US$90.90** a tonne. The **Australian dollar** rose to **70.29 US cents** on Wednesday on the Reserve Bank comments and was near **70.2** today. 04 Stock Highlights & Sector Themes **The AI arms race is now a borrowing race.** Meta's commitments include **US$355.7 billion** of leases running to 2036 and **US$454.5 billion** of contracts for computing, energy and hardware it cannot cancel. Every company building data centres is now queuing for the same lenders, and the weakest borrowers pay the most: CoreWeave's borrowing cost is above **15%**, against about **6.2%** for Meta itself. Anthropic's float marketing is set to start on **9 November**, and that will be the next test of what investors will pay for AI. **Australian software has not followed the US software bounce.** The ASX technology sector is down about **44%** over twelve months, and over two years WiseTech is down about **70%** and Xero about **57%**, as earnings growth stalled at both. Locally, results season starts with **Westpac** on **2 November**, then **NAB** on **5 November**, **Macquarie** on **6 November** and **ANZ** on **9 November**. 05 Geopolitics & Trade The US is preparing to pull some staff and families from Gulf embassies, citing the risk of renewed fighting involving the Houthis, and reports of a Qatar and Pakistan peace proposal for Iran were denied. French government bond rates crossed **5%** for the first time since 2002 after nationwide unrest, and the gap over German rates widened to **1.77 points**, the widest since the 2011 euro crisis. China's CSI 300 is down **20%** from its June high, a bear market, and Hong Kong fell **3.03%** on Thursday night. Russia agreed to resume US-mediated peace talks with Ukraine in November. 06 What We're Watching **Friday afternoon 23 October.** Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock speaks in Armidale, her first comments since Hauser's warning. **Wednesday 28 October.** Australian inflation for the September quarter, with the headline rate forecast to rise to **4.1%** from **4%**. The US central bank decides the same night, with a hold priced at about **83%**. **Thursday 29 and Friday 30 October.** Results from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple. **Monday 2 November.** Westpac's full-year result opens the bank results season. **Tuesday 3 November.** The Reserve Bank decides on Melbourne Cup Day. The cash rate is **4.60%** and money markets price about a **two-in-three** chance of a rise. Positioning takeaway The selling hit AI hardware and the companies borrowing to build it, not the whole market. Australian shares own little of that trade and our banks rallied 2.35% while the Nasdaq fell 2.60%. The risk for Australian portfolios is local rates, so we are watching Wednesday's inflation number before the Cup Day decision. ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-23-october-2026](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-23-october-2026) ## Keep reading ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Wednesday 21 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/m9IEoQKOzbtR8LBPFv6g06yQ6s.png) This Week in Markets: Wednesday 21 October 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-21-october-2026) ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Friday 16 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/mNtUEhaDoUXpghw2sNIp4DiVAvc.png) This Week in Markets: Friday 16 October 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-16-october-2026) # RiverX Investment Management --- Privacy Policy · Legal · © 2026 Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd. 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