--- title: "This Week in Markets: Monday 28 September 2026" description: US government bonds are paying the most since 2007 and the Reserve Bank is about to lift rates, so Australian shares are being asked to earn their keep, and so far they are losing that argument while Wall Street leans on a few AI giants. image: https://framerusercontent.com/images/hd5S0Zy7Phv8vCNuFnnNYUjr8.png --- [Skip to content](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-28-september-2026#main-content) Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd Get started Get started ![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Monday 28 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/hd5S0Zy7Phv8vCNuFnnNYUjr8.png) # This Week in Markets: Monday 28 September 2026 ![Joel Threadgold](https://d2ol7oe51mr4n9.cloudfront.net/user_3GpfS9yL2tylY89eFDCmA4LBqSJ/91d9b760-24fa-4bf6-8a43-ee30f1a97152.jpg) Joel Threadgold September 28, 2026 Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Tuesday 22 September close through to Monday 28 September 2026 (2:00pm) US MARKETS Resilient US tech shares (Nasdaq) rose 2.06% for the week and US shares (S&P 500) 1.21%, even as the US 10-year government bond yield touched 5.23%, its highest since 2007. ASX Sliding Australian shares (ASX 200) fell 0.76% last week and sit 6.8% below their June high, which wipes out every gain of 2026. Today they are up about 0.3% as at midday, led by the banks ahead of tomorrow's decision. COMMODITIES Whipsawed Brent crude fell 5.7% for the week to US$97.60 a barrel on hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, then turned higher after President Trump rejected Iran's offer over the weekend. Dear Investor, **Friday's edition didn't make it out, so this one covers the whole week, and it was the bond market's week.** The yield on the US 10-year government bond touched **5.23%** on Friday, its highest since **2007**, and finished the week up about **17 basis points** (0.17 of a percentage point). The 30-year bond touched **5.53%**, its highest since **2004**. Two US government bond auctions drew some of the weakest demand on record, Japan's 10-year yield hit **3.12%**, a level last seen in **1996**, and five of the ten biggest developed-world central banks have raised rates this month. Our own 10-year yield is **5.37%**, up **0.75 of a percentage point in a month**. When a government bond pays more than 5%, every other investment has to justify itself against it. Wall Street has so far refused to notice. US shares (S&P 500) rose **1.21%** for the week and US tech shares (Nasdaq) **2.06%**, carried by the same handful of AI giants: **Meta** is up **36%** in September, its best month since **July 2013**, and **AMD** rose **12.6%** in the week. Australia is feeling it instead. Australian shares (ASX 200) fell **0.76%** last week, down **66 points**, and are now **6.8%** below their June high, which means every gain of 2026 is gone. The Reserve Bank meets tomorrow, and markets put a **90% chance** on a rise to **4.60%**. As at midday today the index is up about **0.3%**, or **24 points**, with the banks leading. In a sentence US government bonds are paying the most since 2007 and the Reserve Bank is about to lift rates, so Australian shares are being asked to earn their keep, and so far they are losing that argument while Wall Street leans on a few AI giants. 01 US Markets & Macro The bond market did the damage mid-week. On Wednesday night a weak **US$70 billion** five-year bond auction pushed the 10-year yield up **14.7 basis points** to **5.11%**, and on Thursday night a soft **US$44 billion** seven-year auction and a smaller-than-expected Treasury buyback took it to **5.20%**. A measure of bond market nerves, the MOVE index, rose **30%** for the week, its biggest jump since the April 2025 tariff turmoil. The US central bank's own speakers added fuel. New York Fed President John Williams said it was reasonable to assume another rate rise this year, and markets now put about a **64% chance** on a second consecutive US rise at the **28 October** meeting, up from under **10%** a month ago. Friday brought some relief at the short end: the 2-year yield fell to **4.85%**, and the 10-year closed near **5.16%** after that 5.23% touch. Shares took a different view. On Friday the **Dow** rose **484 points** (**0.94%**), the **S&P 500** **0.51%** and the **Nasdaq** **0.48%**, lifted by a New York Times report that Iran had offered terms to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran denied. **Meta** unveiled Muse Charm, a palm-sized device for its Muse AI assistant, and is now close to a **US$2 trillion** market value. **Microsoft** (+3.7% Friday) rolled out new Copilot tools, and **Akamai** signed an **US$11.6 billion** seven-year computing deal with Anthropic, the largest in its history. The cracks are in the funding. **Oracle** declared force majeure on its New Mexico data centre, and its debt now trades below 90 cents in the dollar. AI prices are also falling fast: Anthropic's newest model is priced **40%** below the one it replaces and OpenAI's GPT-6 **50%** below. The Nasdaq 100 has beaten the average US stock by more than **7 percentage points** this month. That is a market being held up by a few pillars, and pillars carry more weight when bonds pay 5%. 02 Australian Market Performance The week went from quiet to heavy. **Tuesday** closed up **26 points** (**0.30%**) and **Wednesday** up **8** (**0.09%**). **Thursday** fell **63 points** (**0.72%**) after the August jobs figures: the economy added **39,500 jobs**, more than double the forecast of about 15,000 to 20,000, which all but locked in tomorrow's rate rise. Unemployment rose to **4.6%** from 4.5% and full-time jobs fell **6,300**, so the headline was stronger than the detail. **BHP** (BHP -1.7%) fell the same day after a fatal accident halted work at its Escondida copper mine in Chile. **Friday** closed down **37 points** (**0.43%**). Only two of eleven sectors rose. Supermarkets did best, with **Coles** (COL +1.3%) and **Woolworths** (WOW +0.5%) higher, and the Big Four banks rose between **0.6% and 1.1%**. Technology was the worst sector (**-1.66%**), with **Xero** (XRO -2.8%) and **WiseTech** (WTC -2.3%) lower, and retailers were hit ahead of the Reserve Bank, with **Eagers Automotive** (APE -4.7%) and **JB Hi-Fi** (JBH -2.8%) down. **Fortescue** (FMG -2.3%), **CSL** (CSL -1.2%) and **Macquarie** (MQG -1.2%) also fell. The index is now **6.8%** below its June high. **As at midday today**, the index is up **24 points**, or **0.27%**, with seven of eleven sectors higher. The Big Four are leading ahead of tomorrow's decision: **Macquarie** (MQG +2.1%), **NAB** (NAB +1.3%) and **ANZ** (ANZ +1.3%) are all firmer, and **CSL** (CSL +1.5%) has healthcare up. Technology is the weakest sector (**-0.63%**). The stock of the day is **Northern Star** (NST +8.3%) after rejecting a **$27-a-share** takeover proposal from South Africa's **Gold Fields**, a **$38.7 billion** offer the board called highly opportunistic and too reliant on Gold Fields' own scrip. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 03 Commodities & Currency Oil swung on every Hormuz headline. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu pushed it up mid-week, then reports of a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait sent **Brent** down **2.6%** on Friday to **US$97.60** a barrel, **5.7%** lower for the week. Saudi Arabia is already sending **3.6 million barrels a day** back through Hormuz, up from **900,000** in August. Over the weekend President Trump rejected Iran's offer, and overnight headlines were already reading it as oil turning higher again. The part that bites is diesel: US diesel passed **US$6 a gallon** for the first time, and Trump says he is looking "very seriously" at banning diesel exports. **Gold** rose **0.5%** on Friday to about **US$4,286** an ounce but fell **2.3%** for the week, a hard week for an asset that pays no interest when bonds pay 5%. The **Australian dollar** rose on Friday to about **70.2 US cents** but lost **1.4%** for the week. **Iron ore** sits at **US$97.10** a tonne. **Bitcoin** rose **3.6%** for the week to about **US$84,600**. We note it and move on. 04 Stock Highlights & Sector Themes The takeover tussles continue. **Ingenia Communities** (INA) received a new proposal from **Warburg Pincus** this morning at **$5.25 a share**, up from the **$5.05** it knocked back a week ago. Warburg has now lifted twice, from **$4.75** to $5.05 to $5.25, so saying no has been worth 50 cents a share to holders so far. **Healius** (HLS +5.6%) sold Agilex Biolabs to Novotech for **$160 million**. On the other side of the ledger, **Netwealth** (NWL -8.1%) was served a class action over the collapsed First Guardian fund, which it says it will defend. It has already paid **$100.7 million** in compensation, but the claim could seek more than the capital returned. **Star Entertainment** (SGR -10.3%) fell after the suspension of its Gold Coast casino licence was pushed back to **31 March 2027**, and **Karoon Energy** (KAR) cut its production guidance this morning to **6.6 to 7.2 million barrels**, from 7.2 to 8.2 million, after an electrical fault. The retailers are the sector to watch this week. The AFR is calling it a "retail bloodbath", and that was before tomorrow's rise. 05 Geopolitics & Trade The Trump and Xi summit in Washington was long on ceremony and short on substance. The only concrete result was a **two-month** extension of the US-China trade truce, to **10 January**, when US Trade Representative Greer had flagged three to six months. Tariffs stay suspended and China's rare earth curbs stay on hold, but there was no breakthrough on AI, chips, Taiwan or Iran, and Xi pressed Trump to actively "oppose" Taiwanese independence. Chinese shares fell about **3%** in two days on the shorter truce. The Middle East is back to talks about talks. Iran put an offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the table at the UN, Trump rejected it over the weekend, and more negotiations are expected this week. Iran says it will not soften its demands. Every turn moves the oil price, and the oil price moves inflation, which is exactly what the Reserve Bank and the US central bank are trying to get on top of. 06 What We're Watching **Tuesday 29 September.** The Reserve Bank decides. A rise to **4.60%** is priced at a **90% chance**, and the banks expect a tough statement to go with it. Bank of America already sees a second rise by February as a certainty. Most listed property trusts go ex-dividend. **Wednesday 30 September.** Australian inflation for August at 11:30am, a day after the decision. US PCE inflation, the US central bank's preferred measure, that night. **Thursday 1 October.** Australian trade figures. Six US central bank governors speak that night. **Friday 2 October.** The US jobs report, preceded by job openings data tonight and private payrolls on Wednesday night. Positioning takeaway The bond market is setting the agenda. With US government bonds paying the most since 2007 and the Reserve Bank about to lift rates, shares have real competition, and the Australian market is showing it: every gain of 2026 is gone. We are not fighting that. Wall Street is being carried by a handful of AI giants, and the week's warning signs came from exactly where that trade is funded: weak bond auctions and a stalled data centre. The number that matters most this week is Wednesday's inflation figure. A hot one turns tomorrow's rise from a one-off into the start of a run. ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-28-september-2026](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Finsights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au%2Fthreadgold-advisory-insights%2Fthis-week-in-markets-28-september-2026) ## Keep reading ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/4r7Uk6edTOyPlcrlw6g9U45ZWY.png) This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-29-september-2026) ### [![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Tuesday 22 September 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/d2PdpKfBBuaGjK7olgNBbQwEk.png) This Week in Markets: Tuesday 22 September 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-22-september-2026) # RiverX Investment Management --- Privacy Policy · Legal · © 2026 Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd. 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