---
title: "This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026"
description: With bonds paying a 19-year high, gold is the first asset to crack, tech is following it lower, and the Reserve Bank is the only thing Australian shares are waiting on this afternoon.
---

[Threadgold Advisory Insights](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights)

# [This Week in Markets: Tuesday 29 September 2026](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-29-september-2026)

 Written by [Joel Threadgold](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/author/joel-threadgold) | Sep 29, 2026, 4:06:10 AM

Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Monday 28 September close through to Tuesday 29 September 2026 (2:00pm)

US MARKETS

Sliding

US shares (S&P 500) fell 0.77% and US tech shares (Nasdaq) 0.92% on Monday night as the interest rate on the US 10-year government bond hit 5.24%, its highest since 2007.

ASX

Flat

Australian shares (ASX 200) rose 15 points (0.2%) to 8,680 on Monday, and at midday today were down 8 points (0.09%), waiting on the Reserve Bank at 2:30pm.

COMMODITIES

Gold rout

Gold fell 3.5% overnight to about US$4,135 an ounce, its worst session in more than three months, while Brent crude edged up 0.7% to US$98.60 a barrel.

Dear Investor,

**The bond market kept the pressure on, and gold took the hit.** The interest rate on the US 10-year government bond rose **7.9 basis points** (0.079 of a percentage point) to **5.24%** on Monday night, a **19-year high**, after touching **5.27%**. The 30-year rate rose to **5.55%**, and the Australian 10-year rose **5.3 basis points** to **5.42%**. Rates rose in London (**5.42%**) and Germany (**3.65%**) too. Markets now put a **70% chance** on a US central bank rise at the **28 October** meeting, up from **18%** a month ago. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said AI productivity gains "won't arrive" in time to offset this year's inflation pressure.

Shares gave ground. US shares (S&P 500) fell **0.77%** to **7,684**, US tech shares (Nasdaq) **0.92%** to **26,820** and the **Dow** **347 points** to **51,482**. Australia sat still. Australian shares (ASX 200) were down **8 points** at midday today, with the Reserve Bank's decision due at **2:30pm**. The market puts a **90% chance** on a **25 basis point** rise to a cash rate of **4.60%**.

In a sentence

With bonds paying a 19-year high, gold is the first asset to crack, tech is following it lower, and the Reserve Bank is the only thing Australian shares are waiting on this afternoon.

01  
US Markets & Macro

Bonds did the damage. The US 10-year rate rose to **5.24%**, the 2-year to **4.93%** and the 30-year to **5.55%** in the biggest Treasury sell-off since the April 2025 tariff turmoil. Deutsche Bank calculates that only **10 basis points** of the 10-year's **97 basis point** rise this year came from higher inflation expectations. The rest is real yields, the return after inflation, which is what lands on share valuations. Mohamed El-Erian says "we're not going back" to lower rates, while Jim Bianco turned bullish on US bonds for the first time in six years. Both cannot be right.

Tech led the selling. The Magnificent Seven fell **1.5%**, with **Meta** (-4.8%) and **Tesla** (-3.9%) the worst, after Meta's **36%** September run. The chip index fell **1.6%**: **Qualcomm** (-7.2%), **Intel** (-5.7%), **AMD** (-3.6%) and **Micron** (-2.6%) all lower ahead of Micron's results on Thursday morning. **Nvidia** (+1.7%) bucked it after lifting its share buyback by **US$150 billion** to **US$235 billion**, the largest single buyback authorisation on record. Software kept sliding, with **HubSpot** (-5.1%), **Atlassian** (-4.9%) and **ServiceNow** (-3.1%) lower. **Boeing** (-6.9%) was the main drag on the Dow after the FAA delayed certification of the 737 MAX 10 over a software issue. Breadth was poor: **28** S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week lows against **3** new highs.

02  
Australian Market Performance

**Monday** was listless. The ASX 200 rose **15 points** (**0.2%**) to **8,680** in quiet trade ahead of the Reserve Bank. The banks were firm, with **Macquarie** (MQG +2.3%) and **CBA** (CBA +0.5%) higher, and **CSL** (CSL +2.8%) kept pushing up. The resources sector was weak on iron ore worries, and gold miners fell with **Evolution** (EVN -3.0%) and **Newmont** (NEM -2.4%) lower. **Karoon Energy** (KAR -12.9%) had the worst day after cutting production guidance. **Northern Star** (NST +6.2%) rallied on rejecting Gold Fields' takeover proposal. **Pinnacle** (PNI -2.0%) fell after three ASX-listed private credit funds were suspended on valuation concerns.

**As at midday today**, the index is down **8 points**, or **0.09%**, with five of eleven sectors higher. Technology is up **4.25%** on two big stocks: **Megaport** (MP1 +15.8%) won three AI contracts worth nearly **$1 billion** and lifted its FY27 earnings margin guidance to **42% to 44%**, and **Codan** (CDA +20.2%) guided to a first-half profit of at least **$160 million**, double the **$71.2 million** of a year ago, on demand for drone components. Energy is the weakest sector (**-1.49%**) despite higher oil, with **Karoon** (KAR -8.5%) leading it down, and property trusts are down **1.21%** as rates rise. The Big Four are all lower, with **CBA** (CBA -1.2%) the worst, and August household spending came in flat against the forecast **0.4%** rise. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

03  
Commodities & Currency

**Gold** was the casualty. It fell **3.5%** overnight to about **US$4,135** an ounce, an eight-week low and its worst session in more than three months, as a firmer US dollar and higher rates hit an asset that pays no interest. Silver fell **5.5%** and platinum **3.0%**. Gold stocks were sold hard: the US gold miners fund (GDX) fell **5.4%**, **Gold Fields** **12.9%** and **Newmont** **4.4%**. At midday today gold was up **0.24%** in Australia, steadying near its lows.

**Copper** fell **2.4%** to a ten-day low on weak Chinese industrial profits, and lithium fell **4.3%**. **Brent crude** rose **0.7%** to **US$98.60** a barrel and **WTI** **0.5%** to **US$93.30**, both well below the highs hit in Asia after Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal. **Iron ore** is near one-month lows at about **US$94.40** a tonne, a fall of **0.3%**. The **Australian dollar** is flat at about **70.2 US cents**, near two-month lows, and the US dollar index is up **0.2%** to **101.2**.

04  
Stock Highlights & Sector Themes

The AI trade is splitting in two. The builders are still winning contracts: **Megaport** (MP1 +15.8% at midday) locked in nearly **$1 billion** of new AI infrastructure deals, and Nvidia is spending **US$150 billion** more on its own shares. The names that sell the AI are being sold. **Arm** fell **9%** in the US and Samsung (-5.4%) and SK Hynix (-5.0%) fell in Asia after reports that OpenAI paused training of its most capable models. **MongoDB** (-18.5%) fell after its chief executive quit to join Meta.

Data centres are also meeting resistance at home. **Goodman Group** (GMG -1.5% on Monday, -1.7% at midday today) withdrew its **$1.2 billion** Sydney data centre after the NSW planning rules changed, with data centres now **80%** of its **$20 billion** work in progress. **Cochlear** (COH) received a class action over its FY26 profit forecast, which it says it will defend. **Healius** (HLS +10.7% at midday) is on takeover speculation after selling Agilex Biolabs. The private credit story is one we are watching closely: three ASX-listed funds suspended on valuation concerns on Monday.

05  
Geopolitics & Trade

Oil is following the Iran headlines. Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then said the US would win the war "very soon", and reports later said Iran had agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, with Qatari-led talks due this week. Iranian officials see a high chance of escalation after the **3 November** US midterm elections. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, is back at **3.5 million barrels** a day after repairs, half its capacity. Trump is also seriously considering a ban on diesel exports, with US diesel exports at a record **2 million barrels** a day.

On trade, the White House and China released lists of about **US$30 billion** of goods each will cut tariffs on: **77** Chinese products and **1,619** American ones. China says about **90%** of the goods covered will move to standard tariff rates. Chinese shares fell sharply, with the Shanghai index down **2.96%** at midday today.

06  
What We're Watching

**Tuesday 29 September.** The Reserve Bank decides at 2:30pm. A rise to **4.60%** is priced at a **90% chance**, and RBC, ANZ, UBS and HSBC all expect another rise in November.

**Wednesday 30 September.** Australian inflation for August at 11:30am, a day after the decision.

**Thursday 1 October.** Australian trade figures, US inflation figures and Micron's results early in the morning, then six US central bank governors speak that night.

**Friday 2 October.** The US jobs report, the last big test before the US central bank meets on **28 October**.

Positioning takeaway

The bond market is still setting the agenda. When a government bond pays more than 5%, assets that pay nothing, like gold, and assets priced on distant growth, like AI software, have to work harder, and this week both stumbled. We are not fighting it. The Reserve Bank moves this afternoon, and the number that matters most this week is Wednesday's inflation figure. A hot one turns today's rise from a one-off into the start of a run.

[View full post](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-29-september-2026)

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