--- title: "This Week in Markets: Tuesday 6 October 2026" description: The US jobs report cut the odds of another rate rise, US shares hit a record on it, and the interest rate on the 10-year government bond went on rising to a 24-year high. image: https://framerusercontent.com/images/ttQoqq34qIMVyfkuYKg7updMRmw.png --- [Skip to content](https://insights.threadgoldadvisory.com.au/threadgold-advisory-insights/this-week-in-markets-6-october-2026#main-content) Threadgold Advisory Pty Ltd Get started Get started ![Threadgold Advisory: This Week in Markets: Tuesday 6 October 2026](https://framerusercontent.com/images/ttQoqq34qIMVyfkuYKg7updMRmw.png) # This Week in Markets: Tuesday 6 October 2026 ![Joel Threadgold](https://d2ol7oe51mr4n9.cloudfront.net/user_3GpfS9yL2tylY89eFDCmA4LBqSJ/91d9b760-24fa-4bf6-8a43-ee30f1a97152.jpg) Joel Threadgold October 6, 2026 Threadgold Advisory Desk · Covering: Friday 2 October and Monday 5 October 2026 closes, plus Friday and Monday nights in the US and the Australian share market to midday on Tuesday 6 October 2026 US MARKETS Record US tech shares (Nasdaq) closed at a record on Monday night, up 1.05%, as the S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,774 even though the interest rate on the US 10-year government bond rose to 5.31%, its highest since 2002. ASX Flat Australian shares (ASX 200) closed Monday at 8,686, up just 4 points on a public holiday in most states. As at midday today they are up 33 points (0.38%). COMMODITIES Oil easing Brent crude fell 2.3% on Monday night to just above US$100 a barrel after the G7 signalled it would release emergency oil and diesel reserves. Gold edged down 0.1% to US$4,128 an ounce. Dear Investor, **Shares are climbing a wall of rising bond rates, and for now the shares are winning.** On Monday night the interest rate on the US 10-year government bond rose another **2.9 basis points** (0.029 of a percentage point) to **5.31%**, its highest since **2002**, and touched **5.34%** on the way. The 30-year rate closed at **5.66%** after touching about **5.7%**. Yet the Nasdaq closed at a record, up **1.05%**, and the S&P 500 rose **0.66%** to **7,774**. The Nasdaq 100 is up **22%** this year. Friday night gave the market its excuse. US employers added just **29,000** jobs in September against forecasts of about **90,000**, the unemployment rate rose to **4.2%**, and July and August were revised down by **60,000** combined. Bad news became good news: the chance of a US central bank rate rise on **28 October** fell to about **22%**, from about **64%** a week earlier. Shares rose **0.73%** on the night. The bond market did not follow, and that gap is the story. In a sentence The US jobs report cut the odds of another rate rise, US shares hit a record on it, and the interest rate on the 10-year government bond went on rising to a 24-year high. 01 US Markets & Macro **Friday night: a weak jobs report, a strong market.** The S&P 500 rose **0.73%**, the Nasdaq **1.19%** to a record and the Dow **255 points**. The chip index (SOX) rose **2.4%**, its fifth weekly gain in a row, and **Broadcom** (+3.3%) rose on reports of a **US$60 billion** financing package for chips for AI companies including Anthropic. The 10-year rate still rose **4.1 basis points** to **5.279%**. For the week it rose **11.9 basis points** while the 2-year rate fell **2.9 basis points** to **4.83%**. Marcus Today reads that as investors demanding more to hold long bonds, a supply and government borrowing argument rather than a central bank one. **Monday night: tech led again.** The seven biggest tech companies rose **1.25%** and the Nasdaq closed at a record. The equal-weighted S&P 500, which gives every company the same weight, rose after **seven** straight weekly declines, only the third run that long in history. **Microsoft** (+1.5%) rose on an upgrade from Melius, and software stocks rose for a fourth session. Services activity (ISM) slowed to **54.9** against **55.2** expected, but its prices paid measure hit its highest in more than four years on fuel costs. **Intel** (-2.6%) fell on news that **Elon Musk's** chip project is in talks with **TSMC** (+2.8%). **The bond market is the nervous part.** The average US investment-grade corporate bond rate topped **6%** for the first time since 2023. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he cannot control the bond market and called the rise a global trend. Marcus Today notes that once the 10-year rate holds above about **5.25% to 5.5%**, government bonds historically stop cushioning a share portfolio. BMO's Earl Davis called a 30-year rate above **6%** "inevitable", possibly this month. The US government sells new 10-year and 30-year bonds this week, a test of demand. **AI spending needs a lot of customers.** A Wall Street Journal analysis cited by Marcus Today says Americans would need to spend about **US$3.5 trillion** a year on AI services by 2032, about **8.8%** of US GDP, to justify the money being committed. Bank of America says the easy gains from buying the AI spenders are done and it is time to be selective. The US reporting season starts next Tuesday with the big banks. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 02 Australian Market Performance **Friday.** The ASX 200 recovered to **8,682** after Thursday's 2.0% fall. **Commonwealth Bank** (CBA +1.2%) and **NAB** (NAB +1.6%) led the banks back, and **QBE** (QBE +4.2%) rose on a Macquarie upgrade to Outperform with a **$26.20** target, which includes about **$400 million** of buy-backs. Technology was the best sector, with **WiseTech** (WTC +6.7%) up on the US software bounce. Property trusts fell: **Goodman** (GMG -2.6%) and **Scentre** (SCG -1.6%). **Monday.** A public holiday in New South Wales, the ACT, South Australia and Queensland made for light trade. The index rose **4 points** to **8,686** after touching **8,736**. **Macquarie** (MQG +1.0%) and **CSL** (CSL +0.9%) were firm, and **BHP** and **Rio Tinto** rose slightly. Property trusts fell about **1%** as the rate on the Australian 10-year bond stayed near **5.34%**. **Wesfarmers** (WES -1.0%) and **JB Hi-Fi** (JBH -1.1%) fell, and **Xero** (XRO -2.3%) and **WiseTech** (WTC -2.1%) gave back some of Friday. **As at midday today** the index is up **33 points** (**0.38%**), with eight of eleven sectors higher. Property trusts are the best, up **1.56%**, with **Stockland** (SGP +2.6%), **Charter Hall** (CHC +2.1%) and **GPT** (GPT +2.0%). Technology is the worst, down **0.95%**, with **Codan** (CDA -3.9%). Materials are up **0.61%**, with **BHP** (BHP +0.7%), **Rio Tinto** (RIO +0.9%) and **Fortescue** (FMG +1.7%). The Australian 10-year rate is up **5.4 basis points** to **5.39%**, which Marcus Today flags as the highest since **2011**. Westpac's consumer sentiment index fell **4.7%** to **80.4** in October, the first reading since the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to **4.60%** last week. Futures pointed to a rise of **27 points** at the open. 03 Commodities & Currency **Oil** is above **US$100** but no longer climbing. Brent fell **1.15%** on Friday night, finishing the week up **4.4%**, then fell **2.3%** on Monday night to just above **US$100**, with US crude (WTI) back below **US$90**. The G7 agreed to release up to **100 million barrels** of oil and diesel over four months, and President Trump is preparing to ease limits on tax-exempt diesel. Oil rose **14%** in September. OPEC+ held November production targets steady on Sunday. **Gold** has had a hard week. It fell about **3.6%** last week, silver about **6.0%**, and on Monday night gold slipped **0.1%** to **US$4,128** an ounce. **Copper** rose **0.9%** on Monday night and **iron ore** fell **4.7%** to about **US$92.10** a tonne on Friday night, though miners were firm on the ASX. The **Australian dollar** is near **69.7 US cents**, still under 70. The euro hit its lowest since May 2025 on political and fiscal worries in France and Spain. Bitcoin is about **US$86,000**. 04 Stock Highlights & Sector Themes **Firmus** is the float everyone is watching. The AI data centre company is in its institutional book build this week and media reports say the roughly **$7 billion** raising is covered, with early backers getting about half the allocation. Retail bids run from **12 to 19 October** and the shares are due to start trading on **22 October**, which would make it the second-largest float in Australian history after **Telstra**. At about **$44 billion** the float is seeking the top end of Marcus Today's valuation estimate, and that estimate was itself built on global peers it considers inflated. One data point for context: of the roughly **100** US floats this year, the average is down about **4%** against a rise of about **12%** for US shares (S&P 500). **CSL** (CSL +0.9% on Monday, +1.2% at midday) agreed to pay **$355 million** upfront, and up to **$1.2 billion** more in milestone payments, to Swiss biotech Alentis for an experimental rare kidney and liver drug. **Cleanaway** (CWY +2.7%) rose after EQT reconfirmed its **$9.4 billion** takeover proposal, and **Ingenia** (INA) opened its books to Warburg Pincus on its **$5.25** a security proposal. In the US, **Schneider Electric** agreed to buy software group **PTC** for about **US$22.6 billion**, a **42%** premium, and **C.H. Robinson** (-10.9%) will buy **RXO** (+22.5%). **Westpac**, **NAB**, **ANZ** and **CBA** will pass the full **0.25** percentage point rate rise to variable home loans from **Friday 9 October**. 05 Geopolitics & Trade The Middle East is still in the price. Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until seven conditions from the June interim deal are met, at least two vessels were struck near Oman over the weekend, and the Houthis claimed a strike on a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh. Iraq sent its own supertanker with **2 million barrels** through the strait, a first in decades, and its exports averaged **2.6 million** barrels a day last month against **3.3 to 3.5 million** before the war. The Yemeni government has launched an offensive against the Houthis, and Iran's oil minister resigned as its exports dry up under the US blockade. On trade, China opened an anti-dumping probe into European chemical exports, and the UK is preparing levies on Chinese electric vehicles. China's mainland markets are shut for Golden Week until **8 October**. Brazil's presidential vote is heading to a runoff, with Jair Bolsonaro narrowly leading the early count. In US politics, prediction markets put the chance of Democrats winning back the House next month at about **90%**. 06 What We're Watching **Thursday 8 October.** The minutes of the last US central bank meeting, released overnight US time. The Firmus prospectus is due to be lodged. The US government also sells new 10-year and 30-year bonds this week. **Friday 9 October.** The big four banks start passing on the Reserve Bank's rate rise to variable home loans. **Monday 12 October.** Retail bidding opens for the Firmus float, closing on Monday 19 October. **Tuesday 13 October.** US reporting season starts with **JPMorgan**, **Wells Fargo**, **Goldman Sachs** and **Citigroup**. **Bank of Queensland** reports on Thursday 15 October. **Thursday 22 October.** Firmus is due to start trading. **Wednesday 28 October.** The US central bank meets again. The Reserve Bank's next decision is **Tuesday 3 November**. Positioning takeaway The bond market is still the boss, and shares are ignoring it for now. A US government bond paying 5.31% has to be beaten by something, and at the moment a handful of AI companies are doing the beating. That is a narrow rally, and narrow rallies tend to end when the cost of money keeps rising. Friday's weak jobs report took pressure off, but it did so by weakening the economy, not by strengthening shares. We are not chasing the record. 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