This Week in Markets: Friday 9 October 2026

The biggest share market float Australia had planned is off. Firmus, the Nvidia-backed AI data centre company, withdrew its application to list on the ASX this morning. It was seeking a value of about $43.7 billion. Talk had started near $50 billion, the price was cut from $11 to about $9 a share during the week (roughly $37 billion), and order-taking closed on Thursday without a clear price. The company said the terms on which the offer could go ahead would not reflect its business and growth outlook.

It is not just Firmus. The interest rate on the 10-year US government bond touched 5.36% on Wednesday night, the highest since April 2002, before two strong bond auctions pulled it back to 5.23% by Thursday night. The chip index (SOX) fell 3.4% on Thursday night on a report that OpenAI's annualised revenue is about US$50 billion, not the US$70 billion that had been quoted. The Australian share market is on track for its worst month since the Iran war began, according to VanEck. When money costs this much, a story has to earn its price.

Tuesday night: a record, then a reversal. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record, the Nasdaq 0.5% and the Dow 253 points. The 10-year bond rate eased 3 basis points to 5.28% after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said economic growth and spending restraint would bring government borrowing down "very quickly". Nvidia (+0.1%) closed in on a US$6 trillion market value and Alphabet (+0.2%) agreed to buy power from Constellation Energy.

Wednesday night: bond rates bite. The Dow fell 0.66%, the S&P 500 0.22% and the Nasdaq 0.22%, while the small-company Russell 2000 fell 1.31%. The 10-year rate touched 5.36% and the 30-year 5.73%, its highest since May 2002, before a US$39 billion 10-year auction pulled the 10-year back to 5.29%. The US central bank's minutes showed all 19 officials backed the September rate rise and most see another by year end. The New York Fed's survey of one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, the highest since May 2023. The chance of a rise at the 28 October meeting stayed near 20%.

Thursday night: the AI trade sold off, the rest of the market did not. The Dow rose 52 points to 51,232, the S&P 500 fell 0.47% to 7,765 and the Nasdaq fell 1.25% to 27,193. The chip index fell 3.4%: Intel (-5.3%), Micron (-4.8%), Broadcom (-4.3%), AMD (-3.9%) and Nvidia (-2.9%). The trigger was a Financial Times report that OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue was approaching US$50 billion in September. Marcus Today argues most of the gap against the US$70 billion figure is a matter of accounting: Anthropic counts what it bills through the big cloud companies as its own revenue, while OpenAI reports its Microsoft revenue after Microsoft's cut. The money moved to software, with HubSpot (+5.3%), Atlassian (+4.0%) and Monday.com (+6.5%) higher, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 beat the main index by more than 1 percentage point. A US$22 billion 30-year bond auction drew solid demand and pulled the 30-year rate down 6.9 basis points to 5.61%. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Rates are not done. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said more rises are likely but need not come at consecutive meetings, and St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said rates should go up over the next six to nine months. A December rise is fully priced. The rate on a 30-year US home loan rose for a seventh straight week to 7.40%, the highest since November 2023, and weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000.

Tuesday. The ASX 200 rose 49 points (0.6%) to 8,736. Scentre (SCG +2.7%) and Vicinity (VCX +3.2%) led property trusts higher despite high bond rates, and BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue each gained about 1.4%. WiseTech (WTC -2.5%) and Xero (XRO -1.4%) fell.

Wednesday. The index slipped 8 points to 8,728 in quiet trade. Commonwealth Bank (CBA -1.3%) and Westpac (WBC -1.2%) were weaker, CSL (CSL +1.9%) rose and Arena REIT (ARF +13.0%) jumped after Goodstart agreed to buy 31 childcare centres from the administrator of Edge Early Learning. Uranium stocks rose after the Alphabet power deal, with NexGen (NXG +4.3%).

Thursday. The index fell 67 points to 8,661. CBA fell 1.5% and NAB 1.6%, and Macquarie (MQG -0.8%) slipped. BHP (-2.0%) and Rio Tinto (-2.9%) fell with the US dollar and bond rates, and Pilbara Minerals (PLS -4.6%) and Mineral Resources (MIN -4.4%) fell harder. Maas Group (MGH -22.4%) collapsed on its Firmus exposure and was put in a trading halt this morning. Mining contractor NRW (NWH -4.0%) and data centre builder SKS (SKS -10.1%) fell, while the exchange operator ASX (ASX +3.8%) rose.

As at midday today the index is up 30 points (0.35%), with eight of eleven sectors higher. Technology is the best, up 1.52%, with Xero (XRO +2.7%) and WiseTech (WTC +2.6%). Consumer discretionary is up 1.32% and property trusts up 1.05%. Communications is the worst, down 0.58%, with Telstra (TLS -1.5%), and materials are down 0.44%, with Fortescue (FMG -2.4%). Local chip and AI infrastructure funds are down 3.1% after the US session. The Australian 10-year bond rate is down 5.3 basis points to 5.34%. The big four banks begin passing the Reserve Bank's 0.25 percentage point rate rise to variable home loans today.

Oil is firm and jumpy. Brent rose 1.0% to US$101.20 on Tuesday night, slipped 0.1% to US$101.10 on Wednesday night, then jumped 2.4% to US$103.50 on Thursday night, touching about US$105 at one stage on fresh Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. US crude (WTI) rose 1.9% to US$90.80. The first Atlantic hurricane of the year has cut US Gulf of Mexico production, and fuels such as diesel have risen more than crude. The G7 has agreed an International Energy Agency release of up to 100 million barrels.

Gold hit a two-month low. It rose 0.8% to US$4,159 on Tuesday night, fell 1.1% to US$4,114 on Wednesday night after touching US$4,091, its lowest since 3 August, then rose 0.4% to US$4,132 on Thursday night. Gold miners outperformed on Thursday night, with Barrick (+2.4%), Agnico Eagle (+1.9%) and Newmont (+1.8%). Copper fell 1.1% on Thursday night, and iron ore is about US$91 a tonne. The Australian dollar is near 69.6 US cents. Bitcoin fell 1.9% on Thursday night to about US$81,975.

Firmus and everything near it. Marcus Today's Thursday note put the repriced offer at about $9, a value of roughly $37 billion, against an offer set at $11 days earlier. The raising was $7.1 billion to $7.9 billion and Firmus has only 46MW of capacity running against 911MW contracted. Maas Group paid $410 million for a 3.2% stake and its electrical arm won more than $1.2 billion of Firmus work. Maas told the ASX on Thursday it knew of no undisclosed information, and the shares are now halted. An analyst note cited by Marcus Today puts Firmus's current projects at about 2% of the Australian data centre pipeline.

Defence and deals. Electro Optic Systems (EOS +4.3% at midday) signed a A$703 million contract with a Gulf state for a nationwide counter-drone system, its largest ever. CSL (CSL +1.0%) will move all of its US plasma collection centres onto Haemonetics equipment by the end of 2027. Guzman y Gomez (GYG) lifted September-quarter sales 18.8% to $387.5 million and kept its full-year guidance. In the US, Viatris agreed to buy Pacira for US$1.65 billion (a 45% premium), and the Financial Times reported Starbucks has worked on a takeover proposal for Chipotle (+6.1%), which would be the biggest restaurant deal ever at about US$39 billion.

Credit stress shows up in AI financing. SpaceX is in talks to raise US$40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, and the price of insurance against its default hit about 198 basis points, the highest since it began trading in June. Oracle (-5.5%) fell on Thursday night on reports it is trucking natural gas to its data centres to get around grid delays.

President Trump said on Thursday night the US "will not be attacking Iran at any time" before the 3 November midterm elections, which took some heat out of oil. The Atlantic had reported a day earlier that he had asked for strike options before the election. Iran's atomic energy chief said Iran will not give up enrichment. Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest level since the war began, though flows have held, with shipments from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea running at about 6.7 million barrels a day, more than double pre-war levels, as Gulf states route around the strait.

The Houthis fired a missile at Riyadh airport and warned Saudi oil workers to leave, and hundreds of flights were cancelled. In Europe, the 10-year French government bond rate rose 12 basis points to 4.86% on Wednesday night, its gap over Germany near 1.6 points, a 14-year high, and European bank shares fell more than 2% on Thursday night. In Australia, the tax office will stop accepting credit cards for tax debts from 1 December.

Tuesday 13 October. US reporting season starts with the big investment banks. The Reserve Bank's minutes from its last meeting are also due. Third-quarter US profit growth is forecast at 29.5% by FactSet.

Wednesday night 14 October. US inflation figures.

Thursday 15 October. Australian employment figures. Bank of Queensland reports its full-year result.

Tuesday 27 October. The big US tech companies begin reporting.

Wednesday 28 October. The US central bank meets, with the chance of a rise near 20%.

Tuesday 3 November. The Reserve Bank's next decision, and the US midterm elections.